Lowell forecast to make turn north on Sunday; Tropical Storm Watch issued for Kauaʻi and Niʻihau

(Update: 5 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026) Hurricane Lowell continues on a path WNW, with a northward turn expected on Sunday. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nīhoa to French Frigate Shoals; and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Kauaʻi County, including the islands of Kauaʻi and Niʻihau.

The latest forecast from the National Weather Service states: “Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauaʻi’s coastal waters as a category 2 or 3 Hurricane and a Tropical Storm watch is in effect for Kauaʻi and Niʻihau. Impacts such as high surf and heavy rain are forecast to extend hundreds of miles from the center, potentially impacting any of the islands.

At 5 p.m. HST, the eye of Hurricane Lowell was located 630 miles SSW of Līhuʻe, Kauaʻi, and 635 miles SW of Honolulu, Oʻahu. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a north-northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed Sunday night and Monday, according to the National Weather Service. “On the forecast track, the center of Lowell will move across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, just west of the main Hawaiian Islands, Monday night,” the Central Pacific Hurricane Center reports.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph with higher gusts. Lowell is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible through early Sunday, followed by gradual weakening Sunday and Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).

Tropical storm conditions are possible in Kauaʻi County by late Monday or Monday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late Monday.

Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches for Kauai, with maximum totals exceeding 12 inches possible. For the Big Island, 2 to 6 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals of 10 inches possible. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible. This rainfall may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially on Kauaʻi and portions of the Big Island.

The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Kauaʻi County (1-3 ft); and Oʻahu (Up to 1 ft).

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands.