Pacific Disaster Center, Samoa begin yearlong disaster risk assessment as El Niño looms

The University of Hawaiʻi’s Pacific Disaster Center, based in Kīhei, and the independent nation of Samoa on Wednesday began a yearlong assessment of the island nation’s disaster risk, down to the village level, as forecasters warn El Niño could reach historic strength.

Samoa’s Disaster Management Office, part of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, is leading the National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment, with support from the US Embassy in Apia. More than 60 participants from meteorology, health, water, agriculture, emergency services and other sectors attended the opening workshop.

Findings will feed into the Pacific Disaster Center’s DisasterAWARE platform, an early warning and decision-support system that officials across the Pacific use to plan for and respond to disasters, according to the center. The center said the approach lets Samoan agencies use assessment data during this El Niño season rather than waiting for a final report.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives a 75% chance that El Niño will reach historic strength across the central and eastern Pacific between October and December. Samoa’s Meteorology Division has forecast an 80% to 90% chance of below-normal rainfall in the coming months.

The dry season has already reduced water supplies, thinned harvests and contributed to grass fires near Apia, the division said. It also warned that tropical cyclone risk remains elevated as cyclone season begins in November.

Samoa faces tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis and public health emergencies, along with growing climate change impacts, said Suʻemalo Talie Foliga, acting chief executive officer of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. She said disaster preparedness requires partnerships and participation from all sectors of society, not one agency alone.

Steve Recca, the Pacific Disaster Center’s senior operations advisor, said the assessment will help identify disaster risks and prioritize actions to reduce the most pressing ones. He said the center has worked with Samoa’s Disaster Management Office to understand the country’s hazards, and that the relationship will continue beyond the project.

US Chargé d’Affaires to Samoa Matthew Younger said the cross-sector turnout reflects Samoa’s commitment to safer communities. He said the assessment will give villages, disaster managers and leaders tools to anticipate threats and protect families.

Over the next year, the program will produce district-level risk profiles, an analysis of Samoa’s disaster management capabilities and a five-year plan of action.

The Pacific Disaster Center said the assessment program is the only US program recognized by the United Nations for helping countries put the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction into practice. The center said 33 countries have completed it.

Congress established the center after Hurricane Iniki struck Kauaʻi in 1992. It is a University of Hawaiʻi applied research center that has worked with Pacific island nations and other countries for three decades on early warning, risk assessment and decision-support tools.