High Surf Advisory in Effect, Swell peaks for North Shores

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley / Email: [email protected]

Keith Teboul shredding at the Aloha Classic yesterday at Ho’okipa / Image: Jimmie Hepp

The National Weather Service has issued a HIGH SURF ADVISORY for east shores of Molokaʻi and Maui until 6 a.m. Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014. Hazardous ocean conditions are expected due to a combo of north swell and increasing winds. Watch out for rip currents, dangerous shore break conditions and strong breaking waves.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY is posted for the Pailolo Channel, Māʻalaea Bay and Maui County windward waters until 6 a.m. Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014. Rough seas are expected from 8 to 11 feet. Winds are forecasted out of the northeast at 20 to 25 knots. Inexperienced mariners are cautioned to avoid navigating in these conditions.

Swell direction & height, 7 a.m. 10/30/14. Image courtesy National Weather Service.

North: Surf is expected in the chest to shoulder high range with plusses at the best breaks exposed to the swell.

West: Breaks exposed to the north swells should see waist to chest high waves with occasional plusses. Spots that catch a south-southwest could see wave heights up to waist high at the best exposures. Breaks that don’t catch either are forecasted to get ankle to knee high surf.

South: Ankle-slappers to possibly waist high surf is expected. The best southern exposures could see waves in the waist to chest high range.

Swell imagery 7 a.m. 10/30/14. Image courtesy National Weather Service.

As expected, former hurricane ANA merged with a storm south of the Aleutians. This north-northwest swell (340-360°) should peak today. Another shot of surf energy is expected to fill in tonight into Friday, peaking in the afternoon at a couple feet overhead. The swell is expected to remain below advisory levels. A new northwest swell (305-325°) is expected by midweek.

A trade wind swell will build in as our trades strengthen. In tandem with the north swells mentioned above, this has prompted the high surf advisory for east facing shores.

Kahului tides. Image courtesy National Weather Service.

Our current south-southwest swell (200-180°) is expected to hold today before fading out Friday and into the weekend. A reinforcing swell (200-185°) is expected over the weekend, peaking in the knee to waist high range Saturday into Sunday morning before fading out. After that swell subsides, surf goes quiet with not much on the horizon out of the South Pacific.

Keep in mind, surf heights are measured on the face of the wave from trough to crest. Heights vary from beach to beach, and at the same beach, from break to break.

Significant Wave Heights 7 a.m. 10/30/14. Image courtesy National Weather Service.

Wind imagery 7 a.m. 10/30/14. Image courtesy National Weather Service.

Wind imagery 4 p.m. 10/30/14. Image courtesy National Weather Service.

Sea Surface Analysis 10/30/14. Image courtesy National Weather Service/ NOAA.