La Niña favored to emerge by the end of November, NWS says

Maui County’s wet season has had a slow start, but climate models predict above-average rainfall this winter.

The National Weather Service reports a likely “weak” La Niña event, which usually brings more rain to the leeward sides of islands. Unlike stronger La Niña events, which direct rain to windward slopes, this one is expected to spread the rainfall more evenly.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says this La Niña could help end droughts across the state by the end of the season. While rainfall and temperatures may rise, there’s also a higher risk of flash floods, though the chances of big surf events are lower.

This comes after an unusually wet dry season for Hawaiʻi.

Kevin Kodama, senior service hydrologist for NWS Honolulu, reported that this year marked the ninth wettest dry season in the past 30 years, largely due to a Kona low storm that hit the state’s western region and Maui County in May. It was the latest Kona low in over 20 years, causing road flooding, landslides, and elevated stream levels.

“It wasn’t quite what I was expecting in terms of the statistics,” said Kodama regarding the dry season. “We had some curve balls thrown at us but still ended up with significant dryness throughout the state.”

By early August, all four counties were under severe drought (D2), with Haleakalā reaching extreme drought (D3). Hurricane Hone in late August helped ease extreme drought conditions in Maui County, but by mid-October, drought still affects 54.2% of Maui County’s population.

The National Weather Service expects near to above-average rainfall this year, which could bring relief after last year’s dry El Niño winter. Residents are urged to stay informed and take precautions during the wet season to avoid flood risks and hazardous conditions.

Residents are urged to stay informed and take precautions during the wet season to avoid flood risks and hazardous conditions. Avoid driving on flooded roads, as just one to two feet of fast-flowing water can sweep vehicles away, and roads may be undercut. Do not walk across flooded streams; if stranded while hiking, wait for water levels to recede. Expect delays, detours, and road closures due to flooding or landslides, and be ready to adjust outdoor plans. Stay indoors during thunderstorms to avoid lightning strikes, and prepare for power outages. If you live or travel through flood-prone areas, identify alternate routes and have an evacuation plan. Monitor weather updates through media, mobile apps, and Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), as conditions can change rapidly.