2025 Central Pacific Hurricane Season outlook calls for 1 to 4 tropical cyclones

Forecasters with NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Climate Prediction Center today said the outlook calls for 1 to 4 tropical cyclones across the central Pacific this season.

NOAA forecasters are predicting a 30% chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity for the upcoming central Pacific Hurricane Season; a 50% chance of a near-normal hurricane season; and a 20% chance that it will be above-normal.

The Central Pacific forecast covers the area located north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line.

Hawaiʻi’s forecast is below a near-normal season, which has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes. The outlook is a guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaiʻi.

The central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

“Even though this season is predicted to be less active, now is the time for residents and businesses to prepare for hurricane season,” said Chris Brenchley, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center director.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center uses satellites, land-and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions, all operated by NOAA and its partners, to monitor tropical cyclone activity. These observations are then fed into a variety of NOAA computer models that run on state-of-the-art supercomputers. This information is then used by forecasters to develop storm track and intensity forecasts and provide impact-based decision support services to emergency managers at the county, state and federal levels.

Forecast and communication improvements this season

• NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center are extending forecasts a day longer on the sustained hurricane-force wind field (74 miles per hour) from 48 to 72 hours.
• New this year, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center will be able to issue potential tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare. Storm surge is the water pushed onto shore by the winds swirling around a hurricane.
• Beginning this year, the National Weather Service will provide storm surge flooding forecasts for the main Hawaiian Islands (Kauaʻi County, Oʻahu, Maui County, and Hawaiʻi County) so that county emergency managers can better warn coastal residents and businesses.
• NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service will offer a new tool that uses satellite observations to help better predict tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. The tool is now available for both the Atlantic and Central Pacific basins.

Hawaiʻi is a NWS StormReady state, one of only eight states in the nation. Participation
in the StormReady program helps to make communities ready, responsive and resilient
to weather hazards when they strike. Each county, community and government in
Hawaiʻi — from the Big Island to Kauaʻi — has worked to enhance their readiness for the
multitude of hazardous weather that can strike the state.