#hawaii recession
Hawaiʻi faces mild recession as tourism falls, inflation rises in new UHERO third quarter forecast
UHERO forecasts a mild recession in the islands over the next year, with the weakening US economy threatening a potentially deeper downturn. The Maui condo market has seen a large plunge in activity, with the value of resales down nearly 50% compared with mid-2023. This reflects in part uncertainty over Bill 9.
UHERO: Hawaiʻi appears headed for a mild recession
The UHERO second quarter forecast for 2025 reports: “sharp increases in US import tariffs, sweeping federal layoffs, and volatile fiscal and immigration policies are undermining consumer confidence, raising inflation expectations, and worsening the business outlook—both nationally and in Hawaiʻi’s visitor-dependent economy.”
DBEDT: Hawaiʻi economic recovery continues despite possible recession in the nation
Department officials say many economists believe that the US economy will experience a recession during the second half of 2023. However, the Hawai‘i economy has not recovered from the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
UHERO forecast shows “promise and peril” for Hawaiʻi’s economy
Recent developments bring both “promise and peril” for Hawaiʻi, according to the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization’s second quarter forecast for 2023 released today.
DBEDT Report: “It Will Take Six Years for Visitor Arrivals to Recover to the 2019 Level”
According to the report, Hawaiʻi could see a return to 2019 visitor arrivals (to 10.4 million) in 2025. That’s based on a list of facts and assumptions that also takes into account the timing of the resumption of cruise visitors the reopening of visitor industry business, among other economic factors.
Hawai‘i Sees Lowest Unemployment Rate Since April 2008
The Hawai‘i State Department of Labor & Industrial Relations announced that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July was 3.7 percent, down from 4.0 percent in June. The last time the seasonally adjust unemployment rate was at or below 3.7 percent was in April 2008, when it was 3.6 percent, the department stated today.