#Hawaii Volcano Alert

Although there is a great deal we do not know about what a volcano is about to do, we can make some short-term forecasts based on what is currently happening. These forecasts, even over short periods of time, give people in the path of lava flows the ability to plan, providing critical answers to the questions: “Where’s that lava headed and when will it get there?”

While our attention is generally drawn to the Island of Hawai‘i’s most active volcanoes, Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, it is also important to keep watch on the Island of Hawai‘i’s third-most active volcano, Hualālai, which underlies the most populated areas of Kailua-Kona and the central Kona coast.

The year 1916 not only marked the birth of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, but also is remembered for the eruption of the Honamalino flow from the Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) of Mauna Loa 106 years ago.

The long-term likelihood of an area being invaded by lava in the future, is estimated in two different ways based on the history of lava flow activity. One approach uses a geologic map to calculate how much land surface was covered by lava during different periods going back into the past; the resulting numbers are called coverage rates. Another approach calculates how frequently lava flows have occurred within specific areas over time; the resulting number is a lava flow probability.

There were 2 events with 3 or more felt reports in the Hawaiian Islands during the past week: a M2.8 earthquake 21 km (13 mi)  WNW of Mountain View at 19 km (12 mi) depth on Aug. 25 at 9:25 a.m. HST and a M3.3 earthquake 9 km (5 mi) ENE of Pāhala at 32 km (19 mi) depth on Aug. 20 at 10:16 a.m. HST.

What are symptoms leading up to an eruption? The main player in monitoring volcanoes is seismicity—the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes.  When magma enters the volcanic edifice, it accumulates and makes space for itself by compressing many tiny void spaces.  Continued filling by magma creates pressure on the walls of reservoirs, causing slip, faults, or cracking in the surrounding brittle rock.  All these motions result in the generation of earthquakes. 

Closest to the US-Canada border, municipalities just south of Vancouver, British Columbia, sit on deposits from Mount Baker, located in Washington State. So, while the volcano itself is in the US, were it to erupt, the area near Vancouver could still be affected by hazards like mudflows and ash fall.

This newly-developed instrument monitors lava lake dynamics with unprecedented resolution. The CLR gauge autonomously measures lava lake elevation in real time, using the light-reflecting properties of the lava surface.

May 3rd marks three years since the start of the devastating lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kīlauea. In 2018, rising summit lava lake levels, caused by building magmatic pressure, culminated in a large eruption on the lower flank which then abruptly drained the summit lava lake and initiated crater collapse.