#mild recession
UHERO: Hawaiʻi economy turns a corner, moves beyond recession with modest growth
Hawaiʻi’s economy is moving beyond last year’s mild recession, but the recovery will be gradual, according to the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization’s first quarter forecast for 2026 released on Feb. 27. Maui is the standout, as ongoing recovery from the disastrous 2023 wildfires will continue to propel rising tourism activity, if at a slower pace than last year.
Hawaiʻi faces mild recession as tourism falls, inflation rises in new UHERO third quarter forecast
UHERO forecasts a mild recession in the islands over the next year, with the weakening US economy threatening a potentially deeper downturn. The Maui condo market has seen a large plunge in activity, with the value of resales down nearly 50% compared with mid-2023. This reflects in part uncertainty over Bill 9.
