Surface observations around the main Hawaiian islands reported moderate to strong trade winds blowing, while pressure trends suggested a slight increase in speeds through the short run. Cloud cover was on the low side of usual upwind of the state, and so unsurprisingly most precipitation over land remained limited mainly to windward slopes, where it received support from orographic forcing. Three-hour accumulation varied from barely any, to nearly a third of an inch, likely influenced by minor differences in the wind, local topography, and the arrival of existing showers from upwind.
Aloft, weak troughing to the southwest moved further away from the islands, while broad ridging expanded over the state from the northwest. Guidance predicted this mid-level ridge to persist through about Saturday, providing substantial support to the subtropical ridge at the surface to the northeast, and increasing local stability considerably. Since wind speeds at many locations still remained close to the criterion for a wind advisory, this product may well be needed at some point as the winds increase.
In any case, dry trade-wind conditions will prevail. However, increased wind speeds will continue to squeeze out at least a little rain over windward slopes, especially from Friday into Friday night, when most solutions predicted a somewhat moister air mass to pass.
From late Sunday into the early part of next week, the ridge aloft will shift quite far east, limiting its influence locally. Some models hinted that the old mid-level low may return from the west as an open, if shallow, trough on a broader and deeper trough approaching from the north northwest. This late in the season, the deeper trough will be very unlikely to have much local effect, but the shallower one may be able to weaken the subtropical ridge, and thus the trade winds, through this period. By the time that the surface front associated with the deeper trough arrives around Wednesday, it should be limited to little more than a slight wind shift, and a bit of converged moisture supporting the windward showers. More typical trade winds will prevail through the second half of next week.