Maui Weather

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 79. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 73. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 81. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Haze. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 84. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 68. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 53 to 65. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. West winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 53 to 65. West winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Haze. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 76. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62. West winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 69 to 76. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 53 to 70. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 66 to 81. Northwest winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Synopsis

Winds will remain light today with sea breezes common across the state. Limited showers will favor windward sections of mainly Maui and the Big Island this morning, with a few showers developing over the island interiors this afternoon. A cold front will move southeast down the island chain tonight through Friday night, bringing an increase in showers with it as it moves through. Behind the front, much drier, cooler, and more stable weather will build in on increasing north to northeast winds. These conditions will make for a beautiful Holiday weekend across the entire island chain with only a few very light showers affecting windward slopes and coasts. The next front could bring a better chance for some rain around the middle of next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a cold front is located around 400 miles west-northwest of Kauai. The gradient locally has relaxed, with land breezes present in most areas early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions in most areas, with a bit more cloud coverage in some windward locales. Radar imagery shows a few showers over windward coasts of some of the islands, with mostly dry conditions in leeward sections. Main short term focus revolves around the incoming cold front and its associated impacts.
The trades will remain disrupted today as a cold front approaches from the northwest, sea breezes becoming dominant across the state. The front will then slide southeastward down the island chain tonight through Friday night. Light to moderate west to southwest winds will develop in advance of the front, while moderate northwest to north winds fill in behind it. The front should have cleared the Big Island by early Saturday, with moderate to locally breezy northeasterly trades becoming re- established Saturday night through Sunday night as high pressure builds eastward to the north of the state. The trades will then gradually ease early next week as the next front approaches the island chain from the northwest, with the wind forecast becoming more uncertain by the middle of next week due to model differences.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly dry and stable weather will continue today, with showers favoring windward sections of mainly Maui and the Big Island this morning. The arrival of some upper level forcing should destabilize the airmass enough to allow for a few daytime heating showers over the interior of the islands this afternoon. Expect an increase in showers along and ahead of a cold front as it progresses southeastward down the island chain tonight through Friday night. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms over the higher terrain of Maui and the Big Island Friday afternoon, which could bring some wintry precip to the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa if they occur. The chance for thunder remains low however as the deepest moisture and best forcing remains well to the north and east of the islands. Behind the front much drier, cooler, and more stable weather will build in on increasing north to northeasterly winds. These conditions will make for a beautiful Holiday weekend across the entire island chain with only a few very light showers affecting windward slopes and coasts. The next front could bring a better chance for some rain around the middle of next week.

Aviation

Trades gradually weakening due to a cold front moving towards the islands. Low cigs and SHRA will generally favor windward and mauka areas, especially overnight into the early morning hours. However, sea/land breezes will become more pronounced due to the weakening trades. Clouds and few SHRA in leeward interiors in the afternoon and land breezes likely helping to clear out those areas overnight. Brief MVFR conds will be possible in any SHRA, otherwise VFR should prevail.
No AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

Winds will become gentle and variable through Friday as a cold front approaches and then moves into the Hawaii region. A weak convergence boundary could develop near Maui today and separate the gentle west to northwest winds over most islands from the gentle southeasterlies around the Big Island. The shallow front will reach Kauai later tonight, then bring gentle to moderate northwest winds as it moves down the island chain into Saturday morning. Thunderstorms may develop near Maui and the Big Island tonight through Friday. High pressure will then build in behind the front this weekend, leading to increasing fresh to strong northeast trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will likely be needed for some waters from Saturday night into Sunday, with winds easing below SCA levels by Monday night.
The current northwest swell will decline slightly today, followed by a significant swell swiftly building above warning levels on Friday. Long period forerunners will arrive by tonight, and the swell will produce High Surf Warning conditions across most north and west facing shores during the peak from Friday through Saturday. A SCA will also be needed for the waters exposed to this next swell. The swell energy will gradually decline from late Saturday into Monday, followed by a slightly smaller northwest swell by next Wednesday.
An out of season south swell will arrive later today and last through the weekend. An increase in small inconsistent swell will start this morning, followed by larger more consistent energy arriving on Friday. South shore surf will rise slightly above summertime average levels during the peak of the swell from Friday to Saturday. This swell will gradually decline on Sunday and Monday.
East shore surf will remain small as trade winds become disrupted. Rough east shore surf will rebuild Saturday night and Sunday as northeasterly trade winds strengthen, then decline again early next week as trade winds ease.

Fire weather

No critical fire conditions are anticipated during the forecast period, although we will keep an eye on Saturday and Sunday which could feature the lowest post-frontal relative humidities and a relative peak in N or NE winds. For now, both wind speeds and humidity levels are not expected to reach Red Flag Warning criteria concurrently, but guidance suggests it may be close, particularly on Sunday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov