Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 77 to 83. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 65. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 83. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 59. North winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming north 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 62 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 57 to 62. East winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 62 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 60. Northeast winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 71 to 81. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 51 to 63. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A rather dry and stable airmass will prevail over the islands through the weekend, with a few showers affecting mainly windward slopes and coasts. Moderate to locally breezy trades will prevail today, before easing tonight through Friday as a front approaches and stalls out northwest of the state. This will allow for overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes to develop over the western end of the state, while light to moderate trades hold over the eastern islands. The trades will strengthen statewide over the weekend as a stronger high builds north of the island chain. Light and variable winds will develop early next week as a front moves near or over the islands, potentially bringing an increase in showers to portions of the state.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a weakening/dissipating front remains nearly stationary around 200 miles north of Kauai, with a 1021 mb high located around 600 miles north of Honolulu continuing to slide steadily eastward. Meanwhile, a weak trough is located a few hundred miles south of the Big Island and continues to push off to the west-southwest. The resulting gradient is producing moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning, although land breezes have developed in some of the more sheltered leeward areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds producing partly cloudy conditions in most areas. Radar imagery shows scattered light showers moving into windward areas, with coverage the greatest over Oahu.
The high to the distant north will continue to slide steadily eastward as the trough south of the state shifts westward and weakens. This will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the islands today. A front approaching and stalling out northwest of the state will ease the trades tonight through Friday. Light and variable winds are expected to develop over the western islands allowing for overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes, while light to moderate trades hold over the eastern end of the state. A new stronger high will build north of the islands Friday night through early Sunday, and this will likely bring a period of moderate to locally breezy trades to the eastern islands, with light to moderate trades returning to the western end of the state. The trades appear to ease up again Monday as a new front stalls out near or over the western islands, with light and variable winds expected statewide, possibly lingering through Tuesday.
As for the remaining weather details, precipitable water values will hold in the 0.8 to 1.2 inch range, with inversion heights hovering between 5 and 7 kft today through the weekend. As a result, rather dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the state, keeping rainfall amounts light and confined primarily to windward and mauka areas. There remains the potential for an increase in shower activity, particularly over the western end of the state early next week, as a front moves near or over the islands. The GFS and ECMWF solutions have trended more in line with each other, and the potential for any significant rainfall appears to be diminishing.

Aviation

An area of high pressure moving north of the state today, will continue to reinforce easterly trade winds across the islands into Thursday. Current satellite and surface obs show some scattered lower clouds in place while a band of mid/upper level moisture continues to push eastward across the islands. The latest satellite loop shows the upper cloud pattern diminishing in areal coverage, with trends suggesting a bulk of this cloud layer will push east of the region this morning.
Otherwise, The relatively stable airmass which has been in place since the beginning of the week, will once again limit showers. A majority of clouds and showers will be confined to favored windward slopes and in between islands in low level convergent flow through the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected through Thursday, however MVFR cigs are possible in developing rain showers.
AIRMET Tango will remain in effect for a portion of the islands this morning for turbulence over and imt south through west of mtn. These conditions will likely continue beyond 22z.

Marine

The overnight ASCAT pass clipped the Big Island windward waters, so little help in determining if Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds were continuing in the typical windier coastal waters near Maui and the Big Island. However the winds did seem to pair well with some of the high resolution models (FV3 and ARW specifically). These models show SCA level winds lingering most of the day in the typical windier areas, and the HRRR shows winds lingering at SCA levels this morning. As such the SCA has been extended through today, although winds are expected to be trending down.
A dissipating front remains over the offshore waters to the northwest of the islands. A high pressure system behind the front will move to the east, following by another front approaching from the northwest at the end of the week. This front will push the ridge towards the western islands, causing winds to ease Thursday and Friday for the western coastal waters and the northwestern offshore waters. Moderate to fresh trades will make a return for much of the weekend, before another approaching front weakens and turns winds southeasterly early next week for the western waters.
A reinforcing northwest swell is expected today, and may push surf heights back up to near advisory levels along exposed north and west facing shores through Thursday. Surf will lower to well below seasonal levels by Friday. The next in a series of northwest swells should arrive Friday night and may once again push surf up into the advisory range along north and west facing shores late Saturday through early Sunday with a downward trend then expected early next week.
Very small surf is expected along east facing shores into the weekend. South shore surf will remain very small through Thursday, with a small boost possible Friday through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov