Maui Weather

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 73 to 79. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 62 to 69. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 79. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 81. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 60 to 71. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 77 to 82. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows around 63. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 65 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 53 to 64. West winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 68 to 76. Northeast winds up to 15 mph in the morning becoming light.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 60. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 75. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 52 to 69. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 81. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Synopsis

Breezy trades will become light and variable today allowing seabreezes to develop during the day and land breezes overnight, however chances of precipitation will remain low. A cold front will bring a brief round of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm Wednesday into Thursday. This will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cool weather.

Discussion

This morning soundings continue to show relatively low inversion heights around 4 to 5 kft with precipitable water vapor slightly below normal around .90 inches. This setup will maintain rather dry, stable conditions today. An approaching front roughly 400 miles northwest of Kauai continues to move east today, weakening the pressure gradient and allowing for afternoon seabreezes during the afternoon to develop a few interior clouds and isolated showers given the relatively dry atmosphere.
A low will quickly develop along the cold front near 30N as upper level shortwave energy digs south today. The low will lift north as shortwave energy aloft pivots through the forecast area driving the cold front eastward through Kauai and Oahu early Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon and into the eastern end of the state on Wednesday night. Strong forcing aloft couple with slightly deeper moisture along the front may allow for a better coverage of showers. Mid- level lapse rates are adequate for an isolated thunderstorm or two along the front, but hardly impressive. Combined with low density CAPE profiles, it appears the chance for thunder will be fleeting over the islands themselves, the greater probabilities residing over the waters north and east of the area.
Frontal passage on Wednesday will be accompanied by a transient period of light to moderate showers and just a slight chance of thunder. Followed by a transition to moderate to breezy NW winds based on the latest Hi-resolution model guidance. Dewpoints will fall further into the 50s. Wednesday night through Friday night will feature rather cool weather characterized by large diurnal swings in temperature with typical daytime highs followed by overnight lows falling into the 50s in some locales, particularly sheltered and interior zones. Chances of precipitation will be minimal following the front as a mid level drying filters in.
Primary uncertainty this forecast package is extent of eastward progress of the front and whether the incoming cool/low dewpoint airmass will penetrate as far east as the Big Island. At this time, model consensus suggests forward progress of the front stalls over or immediately east of the Big Island suggesting they are still in the game for a brief period of cooler weather. Dewpoints then rebound into the 60s as trades return for the weekend. If the front makes it through the Big Island the lingering moisture combined with another upper level shortwave trough digging south may give Big Island a better chance for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Another upper level disturbance and occupying front may impact the state again Sunday into Monday of next week.

Aviation

The trades will continue to ease today, allowing for sea breezes to develop across the state by this afternoon. Land breezes will prevail tonight, with west to northwest winds increasing over the western islands Wednesday morning as a cold front moves in. A few very light showers may affect windward slopes early this morning, otherwise mostly dry weather and VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Wednesday. Showers associated with the cold front will bring some reduced cigs/vsbys to the western islands late tonight and Wednesday morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper level turbulence over the western half of the state. This AIRMET will likely be expanded to include the entire island chain later this morning.
AIRMET Sierra will likely be needed for mountain obscuration across Kauai late tonight and Wednesday morning.

Marine

Trade winds will diminish through the day with light and variable winds over most of the waters by this afternoon as a surface ridge to the north is weakened and pushed southward. A frontal passage is expected to move down the island chain Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a period of rainfall and possible thunderstorms. A brief period of fresh prefrontal south to southwest winds is excepted on Wednesday, mainly over the eastern half of the island chain. Following the frontal passage, moderate to strong northwest to north winds will result in localized accelerations through channels and leeward areas prompting the need for a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for select zones Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will diminish late Thursday and Friday as the front stalls then dissipates near the Big Island. A brief return of trade winds is due on Saturday.
The current northwest swell will continue to decline through the day and forerunners of another northwest swell will arrive late tonight. This swell will slowly build through Wednesday and peak Wednesday night and Thursday, leading to High Surf Advisory (HSA) conditions across most north and west facing shores from Kauai to Maui and SCA level seas over exposed waters. As this swell declines late Thursday and Friday, a storm low centered 600 to 700 nm north of Hawaii will send a medium period north swell that could produce HSA surf for north shores. The north swell will lower through the weekend and may be followed by a moderate to large northwest swell on next Monday.
East shore surf surf will decline slightly as trades diminish, though a small pulse of short period northeast swell is expected through Wednesday. Aside from areas exposed to wrapping north swell Thursday into the weekend, east shore surf will be small. Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny as it returns to typical wintertime conditions for south shores. A tiny pulse of south- southwest swell is possible for the weekend.

Fire weather

Winds are forecast to remain below the threshold value while a reinforcing shot of dry air causes afternoon RH values to fall to near or slightly below 40 percent Thursday and Friday. Critical fire weather concerns are not anticipated during the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov