Malika Dudley’s Maui County Forecast (10/29/14)

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley / Email: [email protected]

Kihei Sunset / Image: Asa Ellison

**A breakdown of expected conditions specific to Maui County is presented below in graphical form. High and low temperatures, swell, percent chance of clouds / rain and wind conditions are each depicted. All graphics are provided by the National Weather Service in Honolulu.**

Alerts **Updated at 3:30pm**

The National Weather Service has issued a HIGH SURF ADVISORY for east shores of Molokai and Maui until 6 a.m. Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014. Hazardous ocean conditions are expected due to a combo of north swell and increasing winds. Watch out for rip currents, dangerous shore break conditions and strong breaking waves from 7 to 9 foot faces.

A GALE WARNING has also been issued for all Hawaiian offshore waters for tonight.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY is posted for the Pailolo Channel, Māʻalaea Bay and Maui County windward waters until 6 a.m. Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014. Rough seas are expected from 9 to 12 feet. Winds are forecasted out of the northeast at 20 to 25 knots. Inexperienced mariners are cautioned to avoid navigating in these conditions.

Today

Partly sunny skies for leeward spots across Maui County today with just isolated showers expected. Mostly cloudy skies are in the forecast for windward and mauka areas with scattered showers during the day. High temperatures should fall in the range of 84° to 89° with higher elevations experiencing lower temperatures overall. Generally we expect trade winds from 10 – 20 mph. Breezier on Molokaʻi and through central Maui with winds gusting up to 30 mph. West Maui could get gusts up to 35 mph and  south Maui could gets gusts up to 25 mph.

Sunrise: 6:27 a.m.
Sunset: 5:52 p.m.
UV index at 8 (“very high” exposure level)

Tonight
Tonight we expect partly cloudy skies for leeward areas. Showers are likely overnight for windward and mauka areas across Maui County. Trade winds are expected in the 10 to 20 mph range. Low temperatures should fall in the range of 73° to 78° with lower temperatures recorded at higher elevations.

Moonrise: 11:46 a.m.
Moonset: 11:20 p.m.

Looking Ahead
Okay… so it’s not great news for Halloween. Right now, models are showing a front dipping to the south, toward the islands, affecting our weather later today and through the end of the work week. Left over moisture from this front is expected to hang around through the weekend bringing soggy conditions to windward and mauka areas. During this same time, winds are expected to pick up in strength so some of those showers could pass into leeward areas from time to time as well. For now, instability expected in our area late in the week is not expected to spawn any severe weather but we’ll keep an eye on it just in case things change. Another front may also affect us by the middle of next week.

Surf & Seas
As expected, former hurricane ANA merged with a storm south of the Aleutians. The north-northwest swell (340-360°) generated from that system should build today bringing about knee to chest high surf, then peak Thursday in the chest to head high range. Another shot of surf energy is expected to possibly fill in late Thursday night into Friday, peaking by Friday evening / Saturday morning.

A modest trade swell is expected to be in the mix late in the week as our trade winds ramp up.

Our current south-southwest swell (200-180°) is expected to peak today and tomorrow before fading out. We expect surf heights around waist to chest high, possibly shoulder high at the best breaks exposed to the swell. Some spots will be in the shadow of other islands and won’t catch the swell as well, expect much smaller surf at those breaks. A reinforcing swell (200-185°) is expected over the weekend. After that swell subsides, surf goes quiet with not much on the horizon out of the South Pacific.

Keep in mind, surf heights are measured on the face of the wave from trough to crest. Heights vary from beach to beach, and at the same beach, from break to break.

Almanac for Kahului Airport
Maximum Temperature for today:
Normal 86°
Record 93° / Set in 1961

Minimum Temperature for today:
Normal 69°
Record 61° / Set in 1986