Tropical Depression Expected to Dissipate

By Maui Now Staff

The National Weather Service’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu has issued and update regarding Tropical Depression Four-E at 5 a.m. on Wednesday, July 8, 2015.

Tropical Depression Four-E is located about 800 miles east-southeast of Hilo.

Showers and thunderstorms persist around a weak surface low located about 625 miles south-southeast of Hilo. This system remains disorganized, and environmental conditions do not appear to be favorable for significant development in this area during the next two days. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is low at 10 percent.

The latest satellite images show that the depression has failed to organize over the past several hours, most likely due to persistent southwesterly shear.

The cyclone is tracking northwestward within the steering flow provided by a deep-layer ridge centered to the northeast. This general motion is expected to prevail for the next couple of days, maintaining at least moderate south to southwesterly shear over the system.

This persistent shear is expected to lead to an increasingly shallow system by day three, but the steering flow should keep it moving generally northwest before the remnant system turns a little more westward on day four.

Only a small window exists for the depression to intensify before the system succumbs to the debilitating impacts of increased southwesterly shear. The system may dissipate in 72 hours.

While the forecast continues to indicate some intensification in the short
term, the system is waning due to the cyclone’s inability to consolidate overnight.

The updated intensity forecast has been nudged downward, with a post-tropical remnant low on day four, dissipating by day five.

3. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1070 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii have not shown significant development during the last 6 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for further development of this system as it moves slowly toward the north-northwest over the next couple of days.

Formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 60 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through late Friday night.