Madeline: Tropical Storm Warnings in Effect

August 30, 2016, 4:44 AM HST · Updated August 31, 2:30 PM
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***CLICK HERE FOR AN UPDATED FORECAST.  ALL UPDATES FOR WEDNESDAY 8.31.16 ARE NOW POSTED AT THE NEW LINK.

Madeline. Forecast track as of 11 a.m. on 8.31.16. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPHC

Madeline. Forecast track as of 11 a.m. on 8.31.16. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPHC

 

Madeline was downgraded to a Tropical Storm as of 2 p.m., with 70 mph sustained winds.

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Forecasters with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center say the center of Madeline is forecast to pass within 50 miles of South Point on the Big Island tonight.

The Hurricane Warning has since been discontinued for the Big Island, and dropped to a Tropical Storm Warning.  Here on Maui, a Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect.

Meantime, surf impacts are forecast for east facing shores of Maui and the Big Island with surf expected to peak this afternoon into the evening at 12 to 18 feet.

According to a 2 p.m. update issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Madeline had sustained winds of 70 mph and continued on a steady weakening trend, and was moving west-southwest near 12 mph.

*Click here for a 5 a.m. VIDEO UPDATE with METEOROLOGIST MALIKA DUDLEY.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: (2 p.m. Update 8.31.16)

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hawaii County and Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the watch area, in this case over the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii.

At 2 p.m, Madeline was located: 105 miles SSE of Hilo; 135 miles SE of Kailua-Kona; 85 miles ESE of South Point; 190 miles SSE of Hana; 215 miles SE of Kahului; 250 miles SE of Kaunakakai; 230 miles SE of Lanai City; 300 miles SE of Honolulu; 305 miles SE of Joint Base PHH; 425 miles SE of Barking Sands; 400 miles SE of Lihue.

Madeline satellite imagery, 10:30 a.m. HST 8.31.16. (2030 UTC 8.31.16) Image: NOAA/NWS/CPHC

Madeline satellite imagery, 10:30 a.m. HST 8.31.16. (2030 UTC 8.31.16) Image: NOAA/NWS/CPHC

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK  (Update provided by Forecaster Birchard with the NWS)

At 2 P.M. HST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 154.6 West. Madeline is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). During the past several hours, wind gusts as high as 60 mph (97 km/h) have been reported in North Kohala in Hawaii County.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).

Madeline will approach the state from the east with the latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast bringing Madeline dangerously close to the Big Island today through early Thursday. Based on the current track, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall is likely across the Big Island today into Thursday.and this afternoon into Thursday for Maui county. In addition to the heavy rain and strong winds, large and damaging surf is expected along east facing shores of the Big Island and the island of Maui. Surf will continue to rise, building to dangerous levels today through Thursday.

As of 2 p.m., Madeline had been downgraded to a Tropical Storm, dropping below Category 1 (74-95 mph) hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The system had reached Category 4  (130-156 mph) status early Tuesday morning, during the 2 a.m. intermediate advisory, but was dropped back down to Category 3 (111-129 mph) Tuesday morning, and was just within Category 2 (96-110 mph) status at 2 p.m. yesterday  By 8 p.m. on Tuesday, the system had been downgraded again to a Category 1 system and at 5 a.m. on Wednesday, Madeline was barely maintaining hurricane status.   By 2 p.m. on Wednesday, Madeline was downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

Madeline. Satellite imagery, 10 a.m. 8.31.16. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPHC.

Madeline. Satellite imagery, 10 a.m. 8.31.16. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPHC.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND (Update provided by Forecaster Wroe with the NWS)

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over Hawaii County through tonight and will develop over portions of Maui County later today and tonight. Winds will be strongest over mountains and where winds blow downslope from higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will peak across Hawaiian waters this afternoon and early evening, possibly becoming damaging along east facing shores of Hawaii County.

RAIN:  Madeline is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 15 inches, across Hawaii County, especially over windward areas and the Kau District. Total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 4 inches, can be expected in the islands of Maui County, mainly over windward terrain. This rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

STORM SURGE:  Large and damaging surf is expected along east facing shores of east Maui. Surf will build today, and peak at 12 to 18 feet this afternoon through tonight. This may cause significant wave runup or damage to coastal properties and infrastructure, including roadways. Powerful longshore and rip currents will be present at most beaches. Large breaking waves and strong currents may impact harbor entrances and channels causing challenging boat handling. Although surf heights will be lower along east facing shores of west Maui and Molokai, surf heights will reach advisory levels of 5 to 9 feet this afternoon through tonight.

In preparation for Hurricane Madeline, the public is advised to be StormReady.

  • Build or restock your emergency preparedness kit.
  • Include a flashlight with fresh batteries, cash, first aid supplies, and any medication or supplies specific to you or your family members.
  • Plan how to communicate with family members.
  • Create an evacuation plan for your household.
  • Bring in or secure outdoor furniture and other items that could blow away.
  • Keep your vehicle fueled and cell phone charged.
  • To help preserve water availability through the storm, the Department of Water Supply asks customers to minimize non-essential use of water, such as irrigation, at this time.

Forecast Discussion as of 11 a.m. 8.30.16

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 A.M. HST WED AUG 31 2016 (Update by: Forecaster Wroe)

Visible satellite imagery shows that the western portion of the low level circulation center has been exposed by continued westerly vertical wind shear. Deep convection is confined to the northeast quadrant and becoming increasingly distanced from the center. Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 4.0/65 kt at HFO and JTWC to 3.5/55 kt out of SAB. For this advisory, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt, keeping Madeline a hurricane. U.S. Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft were scheduled to sample the hurricane this morning but have encountered mechanical issues that have prevented this mission.

The initial motion for this advisory remains slightly south of due west at 260/11 kt. Madeline is expected to be steered along a similar motion into Thursday by a building low to mid level ridge to the northwest and north. This will take the center of Madeline close to the Big Island of Hawaii (Hawaii County) tonight. By Thursday night or Friday, the cyclone is expected to resume a westerly track, away from the main Hawaiian Islands, through Monday. The forecast track has been changed little from the prior advisory and runs along the northern portion of a rather tightly clustered guidance envelope. There is some along track differences in the guidance, with the ECMWF being notably faster with the forward motion of Madeline.

Madeline will continue to weaken during the next several days under the influence of vertical wind shear produced by the upper level trough dropping over Hawaii. The official intensity forecast follows SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN closely through 48 hours. Beyond that time the guidance diverges due to a weakening of the vertical wind shear. The rate of weakening was slowed slightly from the prior advisory, though a fair amount of guidance members show re-intensification when the cyclone is well west-southwest of Hawaii. Due to this, interests near Johnston Atoll should monitor the progress of Madeline.

Due to the intensity trend and growing confidence in the track forecast, hurricane conditions are no longer expected on land, and the Hurricane Warning for the Big island has been replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning. Under a Tropical Storm Warning, people on the Big Island can still expect damaging winds, very large and dangerous surf, and the continued threat of flash flooding.

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