MADELINE UPDATES: Storm Warning Cancelled

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Madeline storm warning cancelled.

UPDATE: 5 A.M. 9.1.16:

Madeline continues on a path away from the Hawaiian Islands, but gusty winds continue over the state.

The Tropical Storm warning was discontinued at 2:30 a.m. for Hawaii County and Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK (Update by Birchard, Forecaster CPHC/NWS)

At 5 a.m. HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 157.0 West. Madeline is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Madeline is forecast to become a Tropical Depression by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm force gusts are still possible over portions of Hawaii and Maui Counties for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells and surf generated by Madeline will gradually diminish across the Hawaiian Islands today.

RAIN: Rainfall in association with Madeline will diminish over Hawaii and Maui Counties today.

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 p.m. HST WED AUG 31 2016
(Forecast update by Birchard CPHC/NWS)

Madeline. Satellite imagery, 4 a.m. 9.1.16. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPHC.

All data sources indicate that Madeline continues to steadily weaken, with a severely degraded satellite appearance. Now that the decaying cyclone is beginning to slowly distance itself from the main Hawaiian Islands, hurricane hunters from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron are making their final flight into Madeline. The aircraft found the poorly defined low-level center further south and east than expected, close to an area of newly-developed deep convection seen in infrared satellite images. Highest flight-level winds were on the order of 40 kt, while SFMR detected winds as high as 49 kt in the northwestern quadrant. Radar data from South Point on the Big Island earlier detected a well-developed mid-level circulation that was displaced northeastward from where the low-level center appeared to be, due to southwesterly shear, estimated to be near 18 kt by UW-CIMSS analyses. Based on a conservative blend of the aircraft data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been reduced to 45 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory is 260/12 kt. The primary steering flow for the increasingly shallow cyclone is being provided by a strong low to mid level ridge to the northwest and north of Hawaii, and this feature will keep Madeline heading generally toward the west over the next couple of days. The guidance suite is more tightly clustered than 24 hours ago, except for some along-track differences in the reliable guidance, with the ECMWF indicating a faster forward speed than the GFS. The updated track forecast parallels the previous after accounting for a southward shift in the initial position, and lies close to the TVCN consensus.

Despite moving over waters sufficiently warm to support a hurricane, the intensity forecast anticipates that the cyclone will continue to steadily weaken due to debilitating shear provided by a retrograding upper-level trough now centered to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The expectation is that Madeline will weaken to a depression by Friday, a remnant low by day 3, with dissipation occurring by day 5, in line with guidance provided by the GFS and ECMWF. While SHIPS and LGEM indicate some reintensification in the later forecast, this does not appear likely at this time.

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UPDATE: 2 a.m. 9.1.16:

The Tropical Storm warning has been discontinued for Hawaii County and Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 2 a.m. HST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 156.4 West. Madeline is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, with some increase in forward speed and a turn toward the west expected by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Madeline is expected to weaken to a Tropical Depression by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

Madeline. Forecast track as of 11 p.m. on 8.31.16. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPHC

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm force gusts are still possible over portions of Hawaii and Maui Counties for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells and surf generated by Madeline will gradually diminish across the Hawaiian Islands today.

RAIN: Rainfall in association with Madeline will diminish over Hawaii and Maui Counties today.

At 2 a.m., the system was located: 220 miles SSW of Hilo; 205 miles S of Kailua-Kona; 150 miles SSW of South Point; 275 miles S of Hana; 280 miles S of Kahului; 300 miles S of Kaunakakai; 275 miles S of Lanai City; 330 miles SSE of Honolulu; 330 miles SSE of Joint Base PHH; 425 miles SSE of Barking Sands; and 405 miles SSE of Lihue.

Madeline. Forecast track as of 5p.m. on 8.31.16. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPHC

Madeline was downgraded to a Tropical Storm on Wednesday afternoon, and at 8 p.m. had 65 mph sustained winds.

Forecasters with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center say the center of Madeline is forecast to pass within 50 miles of South Point on the Big Island tonight.  While the center of Madeline will not make landfall, forecasters say strong winds and heavy rain on the northern side of the system will continue to impact the Big Island this afternoon and tonight.

The Hurricane Warning has since been discontinued for the Big Island, and dropped to a Tropical Storm Warning.  Here on Maui, a Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect.

Meantime, surf impacts are forecast for east facing shores of Maui and the Big Island with surf expected to peak this afternoon into the evening at 12 to 18 feet.

According to a 8 p.m. update issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Madeline had sustained winds of 65 mph and continued on a steady weakening trend, and was moving southwest near 15 mph.

*Click here for a 5 p.m. VIDEO UPDATE with METEOROLOGIST MALIKA DUDLEY.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: (8 p.m. Update 8.31.16)

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hawaii County and Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe.  A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the watch area, in this case over the next 12 to 18 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete.

Madeline continues to weaken as it passes south of the Big Island. While the center of Madeline will not make landfall, strong winds and heavy rain on the northern side of the system will continue to impact the Big Island tonight.  Tropical storm force winds continue over portions of the Big Island and winds are expected to peak this evening before starting to subside. Locally heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms will continue to impact the Big Island tonight. These rains could lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Bands of showers on the periphery of Madeline could bring isolated heavy showers to Maui County, and localized damaging winds are possible over and near higher terrain.

At 8 p.m, Madeline was located: 175 miles SSW of Hilo; 170 miles S of Kailua-Kona; 110 miles S of South Point; 240 miles S of Hana; 250 miles S of Kahului; 270 miles SSE of Kaunakakai; 250 miles SSE of Lanai City; 310 miles SSE of Honolulu; 310 miles SSE of Joint Base PHH; 415 miles SE of Barking Sands; and 390 miles SE of Lihue.

Madeline satellite imagery, 10:30 a.m. HST 8.31.16. (2030 UTC 8.31.16) Image: NOAA/NWS/CPHC

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK  (Update provided by Forecaster Birchard with the NWS)

At 8 p.m. HST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 155.9 West. Madeline is moving toward the southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight with a gradual turn toward the west on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected over the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Wind gusts as high as 60 mph (97 km/h) have been reported in North Kohala in Hawaii County earlier today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Madeline will approach the state from the east with the latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast bringing Madeline dangerously close to the Big Island today through early Thursday. Based on the current track, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall is likely across the Big Island today into Thursday.and this afternoon into Thursday for Maui county. In addition to the heavy rain and strong winds, large and damaging surf is expected along east facing shores of the Big Island and the island of Maui. Surf will continue to rise, building to dangerous levels today through Thursday.

On Wednesday afternoon, Madeline had been downgraded to a Tropical Storm, dropping below Category 1 (74-95 mph) hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The system had reached Category 4  (130-156 mph) status early Tuesday morning, during the 2 a.m. intermediate advisory, but was dropped back down to Category 3 (111-129 mph) Tuesday morning, and was just within Category 2 (96-110 mph) status at 2 p.m. yesterday  By 8 p.m. on Tuesday, the system had been downgraded again to a Category 1 system and at 5 a.m. on Wednesday, Madeline was barely maintaining hurricane status.   By 2 p.m. on Wednesday, Madeline was downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

Madeline. Satellite imagery, 5 p.m. 8.31.16. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPHC.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND (Update provided by Forecaster Wroe with the NWS)

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over Hawaii County through tonight and will develop over portions of Maui County later today and tonight. Winds will be strongest over mountains and where winds blow downslope from higher terrain.

Winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph will continue tonight in isolated portions of Maui county. Wind gusts of 46 mph have been observed at Maalaea Bay and Kaupo. The strongest wind gusts observed today in Maui county was 48 mph on Kahoolawe.  GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN…THROUGH PASSES…AND WHERE WINDS BLOW DOWNSLOPE. LOOSE ITEMS…SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE…WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. NEWLY PLANTED OR YOUNG TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURF: Large and damaging surf is expected along east facing shores of east Maui. Surf will continue to build today, and peak at 12 to 18 feet this afternoon through tonight. This may cause significant wave runup or damage to coastal properties and infrastructure, including roadways. Powerful longshore and rip currents will be present at most beaches. Large breaking waves and strong currents may impact harbor entrances and channels causing challenging boat handling. Although surf heights will be lower along east facing shores of west Maui and Molokai, surf heights will reach advisory levels of 5 to 9 feet late this afternoon through tonight.

RAIN:   Isolated heavy showers will continue to impact mainly the windward and mountain sections of Maui county tonight. Total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches.

STORM SURGE: LARGE AND DAMAGING SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF EAST MAUI. SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY…AND PEAK AT 12 TO 18 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP OR DAMAGE TO COASTAL PROPERTIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE…INCLUDING ROADWAYS. POWERFUL LONGSHORE AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT AT MOST BEACHES. LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND STRONG CURRENTS MAY IMPACT HARBOR ENTRANCES AND CHANNELS CAUSING CHALLENGING BOAT HANDLING. ALTHOUGH SURF HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF WEST MAUI AND MOLOKAI…SURF HEIGHTS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OF 5 TO 9 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

In preparation for Hurricane Madeline, the public is advised to be StormReady.

• Build or restock your emergency preparedness kit.
• Include a flashlight with fresh batteries, cash, first aid supplies, and any medication or supplies specific to you or your family members.
• Plan how to communicate with family members.
• Create an evacuation plan for your household.
• Bring in or secure outdoor furniture and other items that could blow away.
• Keep your vehicle fueled and cell phone charged.
• To help preserve water availability through the storm, the Department of Water Supply asks customers to minimize non-essential use of water, such as irrigation, at this time.

Forecast Discussion as of 11 a.m. 8.30.16

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST WED AUG 31 2016

The satellite presentation of Madeline continues to degrade. The low level center remains partially exposed in the southwestern semicircle, and deep convection is confined to the northeast quadrant. Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 45 kt out of SAB, 55 from HFO, and 65 kt from JTWC. A U.S. Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft had difficulty locating the center and reported a maximum surface wind of 44 kt in the northwest quadrant. However, the aircraft may not have sampled the strongest winds in the northeast quadrant. Given the aircraft data and a blend of the Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 250/11 kt. Madeline is being steered west-southwestward by a strong low to mid level ridge to the northwest and north of Hawaii. Along this track, Madeline will pass just south of the Big Island of Hawaii (Hawaii County) tonight. On Thursday, the cyclone is expected to resume a westerly track, away from the main Hawaiian Islands, and continue moving generally westward through Monday. The forecast track has been changed little from the prior advisory and continues to run along the northern portion of a rather tightly clustered dynamical model guidance envelope. There are some along track differences in the guidance, with the ECMWF being notably faster with the forward motion of Madeline.

Madeline will continue to weaken during the next two days under the influence of vertical wind shear produced by an upper level trough dropping over Hawaii. The official intensity forecast follows SHIPS and IVCN closely through 48 hours. Beyond that time the guidance diverges due to a weakening of the vertical wind shear, with SHIPS and IVCN holding Madeline at tropical storm intensity through day five and HWRF steadily weakening the cyclone. The official forecast assumes that the vertical wind shear will be strong enough to weaken Madeline to a tropical depression on Saturday and that re-intensification will be unlikely, as Madeline will remain near the upper level trough axis.

With Madeline passing just south of the Big Island tonight, a Tropical Storm Warning remains posted for the Big island, where numerous observing sites have been reporting tropical storm force gusts today. Maui County also remains under a Tropical Storm Warning, as winds will be accelerated over and around mountainous terrain tonight.