Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for January 28, 2021

January 28, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 16 to 21 mph decreasing to 9 to 14 mph. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Friday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Windy, with an east wind 18 to 23 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: Scattered showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Windy, with an east wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Central Maui

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Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Windy, with a northeast wind 14 to 19 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: Scattered showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. West wind around 6 mph becoming southeast after midnight.

Friday: Isolated showers after 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. East wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday: Occasional showers, mainly before noon. High near 76. Breezy, with an east wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Windy, with a northeast wind 22 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Windy, with a northeast wind 17 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.

Friday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with an east wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Friday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Windy, with an east wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north of the state will keep breezy trades in place through Saturday, with a slight easing in the trade wind speeds expected on Sunday. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas with a few showers reaching leeward areas from time to time. An old front will likely bring an increase in showers to the islands on Friday however. The trades will diminish and shift southerly early next week in advance of a cold front. The cold front is expected to bring a more widespread rainfall event Tuesday through Wednesday of next week, with cooler and breezy conditions behind the front.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high is centered around 1000 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, and is driving breezy to locally windy trades across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy in windward areas, with clear to partly cloudy in conditions in most leeward locales. Meanwhile, radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with a few showers making the trip over the mountains into leeward locales from time to time. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and an increase in showers associated with old frontal remnants moving through on Friday.
High pressure will build slowly southward and closer to the islands today and tonight, before becoming absorbed into a new re-enforcing high building southward far to the north of the state Friday through the weekend. The gradient will remain rather tight across the islands through the period, particularly today. Low level inversion heights are forecast to hover around 5 kft, and these stable conditions will produce windy conditions across much of the state. The strongest winds are expected across Maui County and the Big Island where the terrain will most effectively accelerate the winds. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for Maui County and the Big Island through 6 PM this evening. The high will weaken slightly tonight, and this should allow the trades to ease to breezy levels statewide, with these breezy conditions then expected through the weekend. The trades are forecast to diminish on Monday, then become disrupted and shift southerly Tuesday in advance of a cold front. Breezy north to northwest winds are then expected following the cold frontal passage on Wednesday, ushering in some cooler air.
As for the remaining details, typical trade wind weather is expected today through the weekend. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas and a few showers will reach leeward areas from time to time. We expect an increase in shower coverage on Friday however, particularly over windward areas, as both the GFS and ECMWF show some old frontal remnants sliding southward through the islands. This will likely send a few more showers into leeward communities as well. Drier trade wind weather is expected for Monday, with fewer windward and mauka showers. The lighter winds will also allow for some leeward shower development in the afternoon hours as a result of localized sea breeze development. A cold front will likely bring more widespread rainfall to the islands beginning Tuesday and continue through Wednesday as it slides down the island chain. This front will also bring the potential for some locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.

Aviation

Brief MVFR will be possible within heavier showers along windward coasts and slopes through the early morning, but otherwise prevailing VFR can be expected through the forecast period. Breezy trades have remained gusty at times during the overnight period and are forecast to become locally strong during the day. AIRMET Tango for leeward mechanical turbulence and strong low-level winds therefore remains in effect.

Marine

A strong high far north of the state will keep breezy to locally strong, and isolated gale-force, easterly trade winds in place through Friday. A slight decrease in trade winds into the moderate to breezy range will develop by this weekend, as high pressure far north of the area weakens.
Large surf along east facing shores will continue through Friday morning. The easterly trade wind swell will gradually decrease from Friday afternoon through the weekend as the high pressure system north of the area weakens. With the winds increasing this morning; a Gale Warning has been issued for the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, and Maalaea Bay, through this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory for all other Hawaiian waters is in effect through early Friday morning, as is a High Surf Advisory (HSA) for exposed east facing shores.
The current small northwest swell will continue to hold through today with a slight reinforcing bump tonight. A new moderate, long-period northwest swell will spread across the area late Friday, and continue through Saturday night. Northwest swell heights will slowly lower from Sunday into early next week. Forerunners of a small, long-period north-northeast swell will likely arrive today and continue through the weekend.
The current small out-of-season southwest swell will slowly drop through Friday morning. Otherwise, expect small background south swells Friday afternoon into early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai Windward, Oahu Koolau, Olomana, Molokai Windward, Maui Windward West, Windward Haleakala, Big Island North and East.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Maui Central Valley, Windward Haleakala, Leeward Haleakala, South Big Island, Big Island North and East, Kohala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Gale Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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