Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for February 13, 2021

February 13, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. East wind 6 to 13 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. East wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west after midnight.

Sunday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. West wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind 11 to 13 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.

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Sunday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. South southeast wind 5 to 11 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

North Shore

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Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Central Maui

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Upcountry

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. South southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. East wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

East Maui

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Lanai City

Today: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. East wind 8 to 14 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

An upper level low just east of the Big Island will drift west- southwestward over the next few days, with the center passing just south the islands this weekend. Expect increasing shower trends spreading from east to west across the state through Sunday. Easterly trade winds with localized sea breezes are forecast today with winds becoming more southeasterly on Sunday, as the high pressure ridge weakens. A light wind pattern will develop favoring local scale land and sea breezes on Sunday and Monday. A cold front approaching the state from the northwest early next week will slow on Tuesday and Wednesday, with continued unsettled weather trends in the forecast through much of next week. Trade winds return from Tuesday onward as a new high pressure system builds in north of the state.

Discussion

The satellite picture this evening shows an upper level low centered roughly 500 miles east of Hilo Hawaii, and a cold front roughly 800 miles northwest of Kauai. These two weather system will bring periods of unsettled weather conditions to each island over the next five days. The upper low will drift into the region on a west-southwesterly track into the weekend, with the center of the low passing just south of the main Hawaiian Islands from Sunday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, the cold front will slowly approach the islands from the northwest, with unsettled weather potentially developing over the western islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. A wintery mix of freezing conditions and light snowfall may develop over the Big Island summits into early next week.
For today, a moderate easterly trade wind pattern will allow localized sea breezes to develop along western sides of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Lanai today. A cold core upper low just east of the Big Island will drift into the region this weekend with the center passing just south of the main Hawaiian Islands on Sunday and Monday. Stronger winds aloft will develop over the Big Island today with wind speeds reaching High Wind Warning thresholds for the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. A High Wind Warning was issued this morning for both mountain peaks until 6 PM HST this evening. Deeper and more unstable moisture will then move in from the east over the Big Island this morning with elevated Precipitable Water (PW) levels ranging from 1.20 to 1.60 inches spreading into the eastern islands. Shower activity will trend higher today for windward Maui and the windward Big Island today as lingering easterly trade winds force this unstable moisture over windward mountain slopes.
By Sunday, trade wind speeds will decrease and wind directions will shift to a southeasterly wind pattern, as the upper low and approaching cold front weaken the ridge north of the state. The smaller islands will fall into the lee of the Big Island blocking southeasterly wind flow and allowing a light and variable wind regime to develop from Maui to Kauai. Local scale land and sea breezes will develop as large scale wind speeds decrease over the smaller islands. Converging sea breezes will drive the shower activity towards the interior of each island into Monday favoring the afternoon to early evening hours. One exception to this light wind pattern will occur along the southeast to east slopes of the Big Island. Large scale southeasterly winds will continue to be strong enough for periods of upslope showers focused over the southeast to east slopes of the Big Island with enhanced rainfall trends.
Monday through Wednesday…The upper level low will stall south of Kauai and Oahu on Monday as the cold front approaches the islands from the northwest. Light winds on Monday will keep sea breezes in the forecast for one more day with brief periods of mountain and interior showers affecting the smaller islands. The forward motion on the front begins to stall on Tuesday as it approaches Kauai. Forecast guidance on Wednesday shows moderate to locally breezy trade winds spreading westward across the state from Wednesday onward.
The long range forecast model guidance remains in fairly good agreement through Monday. Global weather models begin to show some differences on how far this front marches into the western half of the state by mid week. The latest American (GFS) model brings the cold frontal band into Kauai and Oahu by Wednesday, while the European (ECMWF) model stalls the front a few hundred miles northwest of Kauai. These model differences keep our long range confidence in a wet weather pattern for the western islands in a low to medium range this far out. Please continue to monitor the forecast for next week as this pattern and weather impacts will likely evolve over time.

Aviation

High pressure northeast of the state will maintain moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds around Maui and the Big Island during the next 24 hours, while lighter trades allow for localized land and sea breezes over the western end of the state. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible along windward slopes this morning, but predominantly VFR conditions are expected. An increase in moisture moving in from the east will bring the potential for some widespread MVFR conditions to windward sections of the Big Island and Maui this afternoon and tonight.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of Maui and the Big Island.

Marine

Strongest winds will hold across the typically windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island through today as the easterly trades hold in the fresh to strong category. Strongest winds will shift to areas along the Hamakua coast, the northeast Maui coast (from Haiku to Hana), and waters south of the Big Island tonight through the holiday as the winds shift out of the southeast direction.
For the Kauai and Oahu waters, light to moderate east to southeast winds will hold through the holiday due to the proximity of the ridge and an approaching front. Leeward and sheltered waters near the coasts will continue to experience land and sea breeze conditions each day.
Although the forecast confidence lowers, local winds could remain in the light to moderate category (background flow remaining out of the southeast to southerly direction) with localized land and sea breeze conditions continuing near the coasts Tuesday into midweek as an upper disturbance and the tail-end of a frontal boundary move into the area. In addition to the winds and seas, increasing moisture combined with these features will drive the rain chances up later this weekend through the first half of next week.
A combination of the strong winds over the eastern end of the state and a large northwest swell building across the waters will lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions across all Hawaiian waters through the weekend.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will peak today well above warning levels. Observations at the offshore buoys to the northwest reflected a peak overnight within the 16-19 second band around 12-14 ft. This will result in peak surf heights through the first half of the day today for exposed coasts. Advisory-level surf will be possible along exposed west facing shores of the Big Island. Although a gradual downward trend is anticipated late today through Sunday, heights will remain at or around warning levels.
Impacts associated with this large swell will include significant beach erosion with water sweeping across beaches that typically remain dry. Additionally, some minor overwash onto the typical vulnerable low-lying coastal roadways will be possible through the early morning hours by daybreak around the daily peak tide.
Looking ahead, the active trend will continue through the first half of next week due to a large and persistent gyre that has setup over the northern Pacific. A combination of small to moderate, long-period sources arriving Sunday through Tuesday and the easing northwest swell slowly easing will continue to produce advisory-level surf through Monday. Surf may dip below advisory levels Tuesday through midweek.
Surf along east facing shores will trend up by Sunday due to a decent sized batch of strong breezes upstream across the eastern Pacific between high pressure and a trough several hundred miles east-southeast of the Big Island. Downward trend is expected early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau, Kauai Windward, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Oahu Koolau, Molokai, Maui Windward West, Maui Central Valley, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kona.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters,

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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