Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 21 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east northeast wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tuesday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. East wind 11 to 13 mph.

Tuesday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

North Shore

Today: Scattered showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with an east wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Tuesday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 71. Breezy, with an east wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tuesday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

East Maui

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with an east southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Showers likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Breezy, with an east wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. East northeast wind around 9 mph.

Tuesday: Showers likely after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. East northeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Tuesday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with an east wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will continue for the next couple of days, then become locally strong Wednesday into next weekend. Low clouds and showers will favor windward areas, with showers most active during nights and mornings.

Discussion

Breezy trade winds will become stronger by the middle of the week, then remain strong into next weekend, supported by strong high pressure to the NE. Low clouds and showers will favor windward areas, occasionally spreading leeward, but heavy rainfall is not expected as the island atmosphere will not be particularly unstable.

Aviation

High pressure far northeast of the area will continue to produce moderate to breezy trade winds through the forecast period. Periods of showers will move through, mainly impacting windward coasts and slopes, with a stray shower making it leeward at times. Brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities are expected with some heavier showers, however, VFR conditions will prevail for most locations through this evening.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level lee turbulence for Big Island through Oahu due to the breezy trades.

Marine

A strong high pressure system positioned off the mainland west coast, along with migratory highs moving across the North Pacific basin through the week, will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the eastern Pacific and Hawaiian Islands the next several days. This will continue to produce fresh to strong easterly trade winds across most local coastal and offshore waters. A slight strengthening of the high to the far northeast later this week will further tighten the gradient and result in increasing trade magnitudes across greater areal coverage Wednesday into the weekend. Strong easterlies and high seas have expanded the ongoing Small Craft Advisory (SCA) westward to now include the Kauai Channel and windward and northwest Kauai coastal waters. The SCA will likely need to be extended, with a possible inclusion of the leeward Kauai and Oahu waters, through Saturday.
Recent satellite ASCAT wind observations verify a large region of strong trades upstream of the state that will generate a long fetch region and push in an easterly swell. Strong trade winds will also build large wind-driven easterly seas. Both east wind waves and swells will translate to rough sea conditions and higher east-facing shoreline surf. Surf heights along eastern-facing shores will exceed surf advisory levels today. Thus, a High Surf Advisory (HSA) is in effect for the remainder of the week to account for persistent strong trades keeping surf elevated along most eastern exposures.
A couple of small, overlapping relatively longer period west to northwest swells will travel around the islands the next few days. The first of these swells will be arriving later today and level out through Tuesday afternoon. The second set of similar low west to northwest swells will be moving through during mid to late week. Surf along north and west-facing shores will remain well below HSA levels through Friday. Surf along south-facing shores will remain small into the weekend. A small bump in southern swell arriving later in the week will provide a slight increase to south-facing shoreline surf by Friday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory for East facing shores of Kauai Oahu Molokai Maui and the Big Island until 6 AM HST Saturday.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov