Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Windy, with an east northeast wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Light and variable wind.

Thursday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with a northeast wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 67. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 8 to 13 mph in the morning.

East Maui

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. North northeast wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. North northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 71. Windy, with a northeast wind 24 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Windy, with a northeast wind 26 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.

Thursday: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 72. Windy, with a northeast wind 24 to 29 mph decreasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Mostly dry and cool conditions with breezy northeast trade winds will prevail into the second half of the week. The best chance for showers will remain over windward and mountain areas through the overnight and early morning hours as bands of moisture move through. Trade winds will hold out of the northeast over the weekend, but trend down enough for localized land and sea breezes to develop. Shower coverage may increase by Sunday as an upper disturbance moves into the area. A return of dry and breezy conditions will be possible early next week.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts mostly dry and stable conditions with breezy northeast trades holding into the second half of the week due to strong high pressure anchored north of the region. An occasional band of moisture moving through, however, will support spotty showers over windward and mountain locations – mainly through the overnight and early morning periods. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 50s will keep the pleasant conditions in place.
Guidance supports a transition period over the weekend as strong high pressure to the north shifts east and weakens over the far northeast Pacific. Northeast trades will persist locally, but ease into the light to moderate range – enough for localized land and sea breezes to develop. A modest increase in moisture combined with lowering upper heights due to a shortwave trough dropping south into the area will support better shower coverage over the islands Saturday night through Sunday night.
Although the forecast confidence begins to diminish, a drying trend along with a return of breezy and stable northeast trades is possible through the first half of next week.

Aviation

Strong surface high pressure remains far north of the state early this morning. In addition, a surface low is located about 1150 miles northeast of Honolulu. As a result of the circulations around these features, breezy northeasterly trade wind flow will persist today across the state.
Currently, broken low clouds and scattered showers are being transported by the strong trades into northeastern sections of the islands, especially over windward sections of Maui and the Big Island. Expect periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities over most northeast sections this morning as additional clouds and showers stream into the islands from the northeast. Some clearing may take place later today as daytime heating causes a decrease in cloud cover and shower activity.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for north through east sections of Maui and the Big Island for Tempo mountain obscuration above 2500 feet due to clouds and showers. This AIRMET may be needed for additional islands west of Maui later this morning.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for mechanical low-level turbulence below 7000 feet over and immediately south through west of the higher terrain on all islands. This AIRMET will likely be needed through this evening.

Marine

High pressure north of the islands will keep fresh to strong trades in place through tonight. The trades will gradually trend down Thursday and Friday as the high north of the state weakens, with light to moderate trades expected over the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all waters through 6 AM Thursday, and through 6 PM Thursday for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island.
The current north-northeast swell will hold fairly steady through tonight, then slowly decline Thursday through the weekend. This will keep surf elevated along north and east facing shores through the rest of the work week, before surf drops to near or slightly below normal levels this weekend into early next week. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for east facing shores through 6 PM Thursday, and may need to be extended through Thursday night and possibly Friday. This swell may also produce surges in north facing harbors such as Kahului and Hilo. See the Marine Weather Statement for more details.
South shore surf will remain small through the work week, with mainly background south swells moving through. A larger long- period south swell is expected to give surf a boost over the weekend into early next week.
A small northwest swell may give surf a boost along north and west facing shores early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for HIZ009, HIZ017, Kauai East, Koolau Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov