Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. East northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 6 mph.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming west northwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. West wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable.

Monday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Breezy, with an east wind 6 to 16 mph becoming south southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 85. South southeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northeast in the morning.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with a north wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Light and variable wind becoming north northwest 6 to 11 mph in the morning.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. East southeast wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Southeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light north.

Monday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. West wind 5 to 8 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. East northeast wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 67. East wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trade winds will hold on through tonight, with a few showers primarily affecting windward and mauka areas. The trades will become disrupted Monday, setting up a land and sea breeze pattern that will last through Wednesday. Rather dry weather will continue with a few showers affecting areas near the coast at night and over interior areas during the afternoon and early evening hours. Moderate trade winds should return Thursday and linger into next weekend, bringing more typical but drier than normal trade wind weather.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1025 mb high is centered around 1650 miles northeast of the Big Island, with ridging extending westward to a location around 600 miles due north of Kauai. Meanwhile a dissipating surface trough is located a few hundred miles northeast of Hilo. Light to moderate trades prevail in most areas early this morning, although land breezes have developed in many leeward locales as well as windward sections of Kauai. Infrared satellite imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds producing variably cloudy conditions, with cloud coverage highest in windward areas and over much of Kauai. Radar imagery shows scattered showers affecting windward sections of Maui County, with very little shower activity elsewhere at the moment. Main short term concern revolves around trade wind trends during the next couple days.
The surface trough northeast of the islands will continue to dissipate today, while the high northeast of the state steadily strengthens. This will allow the trades to ramp back up to moderate speeds. This will be short lived however, as a new cold front will be approaching from the northwest Sunday night and Monday, easing the trades and shifting winds around to the east- southeast. The east-southeast winds will hold in place through mid week, with terrain blockage bringing a land and sea breeze set up to the smaller islands Monday through Wednesday. A new surface ridge is forecast to develop north of the islands Wednesday night, bringing a return of moderate trades Thursday into next weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly dry conditions are expected statewide during the next 7 days. A cloud band associated with an old front currently in the vicinity of Maui County will begin to shift westward overnight. Scattered showers are expected over windward areas this morning, with a stray shower possibly spilling over into leeward areas. Shower coverage should diminish quickly late this morning into early this afternoon, with only a few isolated showers possible mainly in windward locales and over the leeward Big Island slopes.
Tonight a few windward showers can be expected as the low level boundary layer flow tips east-southeasterly. A land breeze and sea breeze pattern will set up Monday through Wednesday, with a few showers possible in coastal areas favored in an east-southeasterly flow at night, and over interior areas during the afternoon and early evening hours. Models are showing a bit of an increase in deep moisture overspreading the western islands from the south Tuesday and Wednesday, which could bring a few more showers to Kauai and Oahu during this time. A more typical but drier than normal trade wind pattern appears to return Wednesday night and linger into next weekend.

Aviation

A weak high pressure ridge north of the region will keep stable light to moderate trade winds in the forecast today. A few passing showers are possible in this stable pattern with VFR conditions forecast over the next 24 hours.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds will persist into tonight, then shift out of the southeast and diminish through the first half of the week as a weakness in the ridge develops to the north. This pattern shift will translate to a land and sea breeze regime developing along the coasts for most areas beginning early Monday. The exception will be over the windward waters of the Big Island along the Hamakua coast and around South Point where moderate to fresh southeast winds will continue. A return of moderate to fresh easterly trades will be possible for all waters late Wednesday through the second half of the week.
Surf along north facing shores will hold steady through Monday due to a persistent short-to-medium period mix of north- northwest to north-northeast energy moving through. As this energy eases into Tuesday, a medium-period, moderate northwest swell from a nearby source should arrive and begin to build down the island chain Tuesday night through Wednesday. This will be a long- lived event that should hold into next weekend.
Surf along south facing shores will remain up into Monday as the Tasman swell that arrived Saturday moves through. A gradual downward trend is anticipated Tuesday through midweek. A similar south-southwest swell will be possible late in the week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov