Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for May 14, 2021

May 14, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with a northeast wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Calm wind.

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Saturday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

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Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

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Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Saturday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. West southwest wind around 6 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. South wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 71. South southwest wind 5 to 13 mph becoming east northeast in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. North northeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. North wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Windy, with a northeast wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Windy, with a northeast wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Saturday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a northeast wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy northeast trade winds will continue through the weekend, then shift out of the east early next week. Showers will favor windward and mountain locations, especially through the overnight and early morning periods.

Discussion

No overnight surprises, so the forecast remains pretty much the same. High pressure to the northeast will be replaced by a high to our north this weekend. This new high will move to the northeast early next week, maintaining moderate to locally breezy trade winds. This trade wind flow will focus clouds and showers over the windward and mountain areas, although the moderate to breezy trades will carry some of the showers to central and leeward areas from time to time.
An upper level low is expect to linger northeast of the islands today before starting to slowly move to the east over the weekend. An associated shortwave trough is expected to swing through the islands Sunday/Sunday night from the north, however precipitable water looks to be below normal during this time. While the shortwave could help to enhance showers, the lack of moisture will likely limit rainfall amounts.

Aviation

Today through the weekend, breezy northeast trade winds will continue across the island chain. This will allow showers and cloud cover to favor north through east sections of the islands, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours each day. In general, VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but periods of MVFR will be possible within any heavier showers or bands of lower clouds.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for windward sections of the islands early this morning. Latest satellite and radar imagery show continued bands of clouds and showers approaching the islands from the east, so this AIRMET will likely be needed through at least mid-morning. Models indicate that some improvement can be expected later today, however.
Additionally, as the trade winds increase a bit today, AIRMET Tango may eventually be needed for low-level mechanical turbulence downstream of mountainous terrain.

Marine

High pressure north of the area will maintain locally windy trade winds through the coming week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the windy waters around Maui county and the Big Island through tomorrow afternoon. This will likely be extended.
The current south swell will linger through the weekend. Surf along south facing shores will subside Monday and Tuesday with only small surf through the rest of the coming week.
Surf will remain quite small along north facing shores through the weekend. A low over the Aleutians will send a small northwest swell into Hawaii waters starting Sunday night. As that swell fades, a west northwest swell from a low off Japan will likely produce small surf along north and west facing shores through mid-week.
The trade winds will produce choppy surf along east facing shores through the coming week. Wave heights will build a bit as the trade-wind fetch lengthens.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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