Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for May 16, 2021

May 16, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with an east northeast wind 22 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with an east northeast wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 85. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 67. South southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

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Monday: Sunny, with a high near 85. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph.

North Shore

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Today: Scattered showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Scattered showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Central Maui

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Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. North wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. South southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming southeast after midnight.

Monday: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 70. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming west in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. East northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. East northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Windy, with a northeast wind 26 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Windy, with a northeast wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Windy, with a northeast wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with an east wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Update

Keeping in line with the current background trade wind flow, strengthened northeast winds and gusts in the Kohala area of the Big Island this afternoon and evening.
.SYNOPSIS… Surface high pressure far north of the state will produce locally windy trades today. The trades will be locally breezy from tonight through mid-week. Low clouds and passing trade showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with a few brief showers possible over some leeward sections.

Discussion

A 1030 mb surface high pressure system is centered near 35N 154W, or about 975 miles north of Honolulu. The tight pressure gradient south of this feature is producing locally windy trade winds across the state early this morning. Based on loops of water vapor satellite imagery, an upper-level low is evident near 27N 144W, or about 870 miles northeast of Hilo. Satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data show scattered to broken low clouds and scattered showers streaming into the windward sides of the islands early this morning.
The forecast guidance indicates the surface high to the north of the area will produce a more easterly trade wind flow from later today and tonight through Monday. The upper-level low is also forecast to gradually lift out to the northeast away from the region from tonight through Monday. No significant moisture sources are expected to be embedded within the low-level trade wind flow during the next few days. Low clouds and passing trade showers will continue over windward and mauka areas, especially during the late night and early morning hours. The strong trade winds will transport brief showers over the leeward sides of some of the smaller islands. In addition, expect daytime heating to produce clouds and isolated showers over the upslope sections of the leeward Big Island each afternoon.
Toward the end of this week, the surface high is expected to move to a position far north-northeast of the area. This will result in a slight downward trend in trade wind speeds. The forecast guidance also shows increasing moisture moving up from the southeast toward the islands. This scenario could lead to warmer temperatures and muggy conditions setting up across the islands as we head into next weekend.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge north of the region will maintain breezy to locally strong trade winds today. Upper level instability will keep passing showers in the forecast, favoring windward and mountain areas. Mostly VFR conditions are expected with only brief periods of MVFR possible in showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence south through west of island mountains. Strong trade winds will likely keep this AIRMET in effect trough Monday.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to locally strong trades in place through late this week. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for most marine zones through 6 pm this evening, and for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 pm Tuesday.
North shore surf will remain small today, before a couple overlapping northwest swells bring a small boost to north and west facing shores Monday through Wednesday. Surf along north facing shores will then trend down Thursday and fall back into the very small range Friday into next weekend.
The current south swell will gradually decline today, with only small background southerly swells expected Monday through late this week.
Persistent trade winds over and upstream of the islands will keep east shore surf relatively unchanged through late this week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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