Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 87. East northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 69. East northeast wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 87. East northeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Isolated showers between 7pm and 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 68. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Isolated showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east wind 16 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Windy, with an east wind 14 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east wind 14 to 19 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. West southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Light and variable wind becoming east 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East northeast wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Breezy, with a light east northeast wind becoming north northeast 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Sunday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Breezy, with a northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a light east wind becoming east southeast 12 to 17 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to at times breezy trade winds blowing through late next week. Fairly dry and stable conditions are expected through early Sunday, with a few light showers affecting windward and mauka areas at times. A more typical trade wind shower regime should resume Sunday afternoon and linger through late next week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, mainly during the night and early morning hours, and a stray shower reaching leeward communities from time to time.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1033 mb high is centered around 1400 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, and is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas, with a bit more cloud cover over windward sections of Maui and the Big Island, where radar imagery shows a few showers moving onshore. Elsewhere, very little in any shower activity is noted. Main short term concern revolves around rain chances during the next couple days.
High pressure will hold in place to the north-northeast of the state today, before getting absorbed into a new stronger high to the north of the islands Sunday through Monday. This high will then settle southward and closer to the state Tuesday through late next week. Trade winds will prevail at moderate to locally breezy levels through the weekend. The trades may then ease slightly on Monday, before strengthening to breezy levels Tuesday through late next week.
As for the remaining weather details, a fairly dry and stable trade wind pattern is expected through early Sunday. A few light showers will be possible mainly in windward areas during this time, as well as over the leeward Big Island slopes in the afternoon and evening hours. A weak mid-level disturbance then appears to slowly slide westward across the islands Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. This feature will likely lift inversion heights slightly and bring a subtle increase in trade wind shower activity. Not much change in the overall weather pattern expected for the second half of next week, with trade showers continuing to focus over windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a stray shower reaching leeward communities from time to time.

Aviation

A surface high far north of the area will maintain locally strong east winds near the surface. The low level flow will carry clouds and showers over east sections of the islands, especially during the nights and early mornings. Afternoon heating will produce clouds and showers over the southwest slopes of the Big Island and Maui. Ridging aloft will keep the atmosphere dry and stable, so VFR conditions will prevail. No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected.

Marine

A surface high centered far N of the area will support seasonably persistent trade winds that will be moderate to locally strong, likely requiring a Small Craft Advisory for waters around Maui County and the Big Island for the foreseeable future.
A small NNW swell is expected today, with very little in the way of NW swell expected thereafter. A moderate SSW swell is expected through the weekend, and latest buoy observations suggest the swell may be a bit larger than anticipated, but peak surf heights are currently expected to remain below High Surf Advisory levels along S facing shores. Additional small swells from the S are expected early next week. Trade winds near and upstream of the islands will supply short- period ENE wind waves that will result in near seasonal surf along E facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov