Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 91. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 92. East northeast wind around 8 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East northeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 67. East northeast wind 7 to 11 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 86. East northeast wind 7 to 9 mph.

North Shore

Today: Scattered showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. East wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 70. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tuesday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east northeast wind 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 74. East northeast wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 54. East northeast wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 75. East wind 8 to 10 mph.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. East wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny, with a high near 77. Northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 78. East northeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with an east wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with an east northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue this week. Low clouds and showers will focus over windward areas, with showers more active during nights and mornings. Daytime heating will produce clouds and a few showers over the leeward slopes of the Big Island during the afternoons and evenings.

Discussion

No changes to the forecast in the near term with the morning package. For the weekend, have started to trend the winds down just a bit, with recent runs of both the ECMWF and GFS showing weaker winds than what we had in the forecast.
Satellite shows the clouds near Maui County and Big Island last evening have crept north to Oahu overnight, and have been moving to the west. As such, skies over Maui County and the Big Island area starting to clear out. Precipitable water (PW) values remain below normal, and that is evident in the rainfall totals seen statewide. The highest totals overnight were found at gages on the Big Island, but even those were under half an inch in 6 hours.
High pressure remains north of the islands, and is expected to be the driving force for trade winds through much of the week. Expect moderate to breezy trade winds. A band of increased PW is about 220 miles northeast of the smaller islands, and is making its way towards the islands. Expect this moisture to reach the islands late today or tonight.
The high is expected to move eastward across the north central Pacific as a complex low and front linger near the dateline. Look for clouds and limited showers to remain focused over windward areas, with some making it to leeward areas from time to time. An upper low northwest of the islands is forecast to move toward the state over the next few days as a separate frontal boundary approaches from the north. This would lead to an increase in shower coverage and intensity starting Tuesday night, initially for Kauai and Oahu, and then spreading to Maui County over the second half of the week. Trade winds will continue through this time period, so showers will remain focused over windward and mountain areas.
As mentioned above, the trend in the global models is for a weakening of the trade wind flow due to the high to the northeast lifting northward through the weekend.

Aviation

Moderate easterly trades will continue through Tuesday, with clouds and showers favoring windward coasts and slopes. MVFR conditions will be possible in and around showers moving through, especially through the late night and early morning periods.
There are no AIRMETs currently in effect, however, AIRMET Sierra can’t be ruled out through the overnight and early morning periods for mountain obscuration over windward areas.

Marine

High pressure north of the islands maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over most of the coastal waters through next weekend. Winds may reach Small Craft Advisory thresholds at times around Maui and the Big Island.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small through Wednesday, then rise, possibly reaching High Surf Advisory levels next weekend. A short-period north swell will produce small surf along north facing shores through Wednesday night. Surf along north facing shores will be minimal through the rest of the week, but a small northwest swell is possible early next week. Trade winds upstream of the islands will produce only small and choppy surf along east facing shores through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov