Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. East northeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. East northeast wind around 9 mph.

Thursday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. East northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. East wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 71. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. East wind around 11 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. East wind 9 to 11 mph.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. East wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming north northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.

Thursday: Scattered showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. East northeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north of the state will keep moderate trades in place through Friday, with the trades easing a little over the weekend, and possibly becoming even lighter next week. The remnants of an old front will dampen windward sections of Kauai and Oahu today, with a thunderstorm not out of the question on Kauai. A more typical trade wind pattern will return tonight and hold through early next week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas and a few showers reaching leeward communities from time to time.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered around 1400 miles northeast of Honolulu, and is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds resulting in partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state, with cloud coverage the highest over Kauai and Oahu. Meanwhile aloft, water vapor imagery shows a broad mid/upper level low a couple hundred miles northwest of Kauai. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward sections of Kauai, Oahu and the Big Island, with coverage the greatest over Kauai. A few showers are also affecting windward sections of Molokai and Maui, but coverage is much more sparse. Main short term concern revolves around thunder chances the next couple days.
High pressure northeast of the state will lift slowly northward through Friday, keeping moderate trade winds in place across the island chain. A couple fronts approaching and stalling northwest of the islands Saturday through next Tuesday, will suppress the trades down into the light to locally moderate range. The lighter winds will allowing for some localized land and sea breezes to develop during this time as well.
As for the remaining weather details, the remnants of an old front will continue to affect Kauai and Oahu today, bringing showery conditions at times to windward and mauka areas. We will need to keep a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for Kauai through this evening as well due to a disturbance aloft moving overhead while the old frontal remnants move through. Meanwhile across Maui County and the Big Island, a fairly dry trade wind pattern will prevail, although shower coverage will be a bit higher over windward Big Island.
A more typical trade wind pattern will resume tonight and hold in place through early next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers spilling leeward at times as well. A few showers may also develop each afternoon over leeward areas in the lightened trade wind regime Saturday through next Tuesday. Some lingering instability may allow for a thunderstorm or two to pop on the Big Island Thursday afternoon as well.

Aviation

Moderate easterly trades will concentrate most shower activity along the windward coasts and slopes through this afternoon. In addition, a moisture boundary will act to increase shower activity for Oahu and Kauai.
Relatively unstable air aloft will lead to a slight chance of thunderstorms over Kauai and surrounding waters.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

High pressure north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through Friday. Showers activity will remain elevated over the northern waters today and may produce a few isolated thunderstorms around Kauai waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Thursday afternoon for the windier waters near Maui and the Big Island. Trade winds are expected to decrease over the weekend as a front develops well northwest of the state.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small today, then slowly rise and approach High Surf Advisory levels over the weekend, and slowly decline into next week. Surf along north facing shores will be minimal through the rest of the week, but a small northwest swell is possible Sunday and could remain into next week. Trade winds upstream of the islands will produce small to moderate choppy surf along east facing shores through the period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov