Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 73. East wind 5 to 8 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 90. East wind around 5 mph.

South Side

Today: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. East wind 6 to 8 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 85. East wind around 7 mph.

North Shore

Today: Sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. East southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny, with a high near 86. North northwest wind 7 to 13 mph becoming east northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 71. East wind around 8 mph.

Thursday: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 85. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. East southeast wind 6 to 8 mph.

Thursday: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 75. East northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. East southeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. East wind 5 to 9 mph.

Thursday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. East southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. East northeast wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 71. East wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 88. East wind around 7 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A ridge of high pressure 280 miles north of Kauai this early Wednesday morning will continue to drift slowly south today before coming to a stop some 220 miles north of Kauai Thursday. This action translate to trade winds continuing over the area to Thursday, then give way to lighter winds with a slight south component on Thursday night and Friday. Trade wind returns and strengthens Friday night through Sunday night.

Discussion

A 1024 mb surface high is centered 1380 miles northeast of the islands this early Wednesday morning. A ridge extends southwestward to 280 miles north of Kauai. The high will be heading northeast through Friday, coming to a halt off the Washington coast over the weekend. The surface ridge will be moving south in the mean time, becoming nearly stationary 220 north of Kauai Thursday. This action will cause the light to moderate trade winds to weaken and shift to the east and east- southeast on Thursday night and Friday. Under this wind pattern, Maui and Big Island will bring a mix of a background easterly winds over water and a daytime sea and nighttime land breeze over the remaining islands. The convergent sea breeze overland, especially the lee and interior areas, will result in some clouds and showers Friday afternoon.
There has been a bump up in trade showers compared to the past few nights. The showers are mostly on the light side. Windward Oahu and windward Big Island have benefited the most from these showers so far. Biggest surprise is at the Kohala Ranch on the Big Island where a late night heavy shower produced 1.57 inches in a 3 to 6 hour period.
Latest satellite imagery shows considerable amount of low clouds affecting over the northeast facing section of the Big island and toward the northeast for at least a couple of hundred miles. It will be hard for all of these clouds to clear out this morning. Low cloud coverage is more scattered and broken immediately upwind of Maui, Molokai, and Oahu. They will be moving ashore in the next couple of hours, bringing on some wet roads for the morning commute. Look for these passing showers to be less over the windward and mauka sections by this this afternoon, although the daytime heating and ample moisture may set off a shower or two over the wind sheltered areas of the leeward section. Kauai has been the driest thus far tonight, but do expect the clouds and showers now affecting Oahu, to reach the island in the next couple of hours. As a repeat to the past two days, the interior and lee areas of the island will likely see another round of afternoon clouds and showers.
This significant uptick in trade clouds and showers could partially be attributed to the upper level short wave trough gradually approaching the islands from the north. It is slated to reach the islands this evening where it will remain stalled over the islands through Thursday before moving south of the Big Island Friday night. This disturbance may initiate some spotty heavy afternoon and evening showers particularly leeward Big Island the next couple of days.
When the trade winds return Saturday night, it will remain at moderate speed through Sunday before strengthening to locally strong Sunday night. It will hold at this strength through Wednesday night.

Aviation

This morning, an area of surface high pressure is centered far northeast of the state with a ridge extending southwestward north of Kauai. Latest satellite and radar imagery depict quite a bit of clouds and showers upwind of the islands early this morning, particularly from Oahu to the Big Island. Light to locally moderate easterly trade winds are forecast to remain in place today, which will allow clouds and showers to continue favoring east facing slopes and coasts throughout the forecast period. Elsewhere, sea breezes will be possible in sheltered leeward areas today given the relatively light background flow, which will promote increased cloud cover during the afternoon hours in these areas as well.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect, though mountain obscuration could become an issue later this morning. This is especially true for windward sections of the Big Island, where latest satellite imagery shows an extensive band of clouds approaching from the east.

Marine

Light to moderate trades will prevail through Saturday, then strengthen to moderate and locally strong levels Sunday through early next week. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island at that time.
Surf along south facing shores will be a notch below seasonal levels today, then rise to near the summertime average again Thursday through early next week as a series of small overlapping south swells move through. A series of small northwest swells will keep some small surf in place along north facing shores through early next week, with the peak day looking to be Saturday, where slightly overhead surf will be possible. Surf along east facing shores will remain small and below the summertime average through early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov