Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 67. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. North northeast wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Light southwest wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. East southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. East southeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. East wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 16 mph becoming light east northeast. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a southeast wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. East southeast wind 5 to 11 mph.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trades will hold in place through Tuesday, with localized sea and land breezes developing in the more sheltered leeward areas. Fairly dry conditions should prevail through today and tonight, with mainly a few windward showers. A slight increase in showers is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night as a band of moisture moves through. Trades will get a boost back to moderate levels Wednesday and Thursday, then become breezy Friday through Sunday. With the strengthening trades, we should see a more typical windward and mauka focused shower pattern resume, with a stray shower reaching leeward areas from time to time.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a ridge of high pressure is located around 225 miles north of Kauai, and extends to a 1022 mb high to the distant northeast. Meanwhile, a nearly stationary front is located around 300 miles northwest of Garden Isle. The resulting gradient is producing light to moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning, with land breezes present in some of the more sheltered leeward areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas, with a bit more cloud cover over portions of Kauai and the Big Island. Radar imagery shows a few isolated to widely scattered showers mainly moving into windward areas, with mainly rain free conditions in leeward areas, aside from a few showers along the leeward Big Island coast. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and trade wind trends during the next few days.
The trade winds will trend upward ever so slightly during the next couple days, as the ridge of high pressure north of the islands lifts slowly northward and further away from the state. The trades will likely remain light enough during this time however, to allow for localized sea and land breezes to develop in the most sheltered leeward areas. High pressure building northeast of the state will strengthen the trades to moderate levels during the middle of the week, with breezy trades expected to overspread the islands Friday through Sunday.
As for the remaining weather details, rather dry conditions should persist statewide today and tonight, with perhaps an increase in showers over windward sections of Maui and the Big Island toward daybreak Tuesday as a new band of moisture approaches from the east. This band of moisture will shift eastward across the islands Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing scattered showers to windward areas, as well as an increase in daytime heating driven showers over leeward areas. A more typical trade wind shower pattern appears to resume Wednesday through Sunday, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, and a stray shower reaching leeward areas from time to time.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge continues to slowly build north of the Hawaiian Islands. Easterly trade winds will gradually increase in strength into the moderate to breezy range from Wednesday onward. Brief passing showers are possible with isolated MVFR conditions favoring windward and mountain slopes.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect or anticipated at this time.

Marine

The western end of a surface ridge located north of the islands is lifting slowly northward early this morning. This will continue to cause the pressure gradient to tighten across the state early this week, which will produce moderate trade winds through Tuesday. By mid-week, expect locally strong trade winds to return. As a result, Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely develop over the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island from Wednesday through Friday.
Small south and southeast swells will produce near summertime average surf along south facing shores through early Tuesday. A new long-period south-southwest swell arriving late Tuesday will likely cause an increase in surf heights along south facing shores from Tuesday night through Wednesday. Note that our current forecast keeps surf heights below the High Surf Advisory threshold along south facing shores when this swell likely peaks on Wednesday. This south-southwest swell will gradually lower from Thursday through Friday. The forecast guidance continues to show a larger long-period south-southwest swell arriving next Sunday. This swell may result in a significant increase in surf heights along south facing shores during the Independence Holiday Weekend.
The current short-period northwest swell will gradually decrease through mid-week. The latest forecast guidance continues to show a new small northwest swell arriving Friday, which may produce a small bump in surf heights along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands from late Friday into Saturday. The moderate trade winds will produce small surf along east facing shores during the next few days. As the trade winds gradually strengthen later this week, expect choppy surf to increase along east facing shores, especially as we head into the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov