Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 74. East northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 96. East northeast wind 5 to 11 mph becoming west southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. West wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. West northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with a northeast wind 13 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a northeast wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 70. Breezy, with a northeast wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a northeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. West wind 3 to 8 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

East Maui

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. East wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Scattered showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Thursday: Scattered showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. East wind 9 to 11 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light east northeast after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with a light northeast wind becoming east 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy easterly trade winds are expected through the holiday weekend as high pressure strengthens to the northeast. Any showers that develop will favor windward and mauka areas, mainly through the overnight and early morning periods as pockets of moisture move through. With the exception of the Kona slopes of the Big Island through the afternoons, the drought conditions will persist over leeward areas with little to no rainfall expected.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the subtropical ridge strengthening to the north today through Thursday as a weak trough dissipates well northwest of the area. Trades will respond and increase into the moderate to breezy category today, which should persist through the holiday weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours as pockets of moisture move through. Dry and stable conditions aloft combined with a strong subsidence inversion should limit accumulations each day, with little to none expected over the dry leeward areas.

Aviation

Light to locally moderate trade winds will steer multiple bands of light showers towards east facing slopes and coasts. Early morning infrared satellite imagery reveals extensive cloud cover extending across the adjacent waters north thru east of the islands as well as the northeast slopes and coasts of the Big Island.
An AIRMET for mountain obscuration is currently in effect for northeast slopes of the Big Island. Conditions are expected to end towards noon as daytime heating promotes lifting and clearing. By late afternoon, VFR conditions should prevail all areas.
Trade wind speeds are expected to gradually increase over the next twenty-four hours. This, combined with a strong subsidence inversion around 7 kft, will likely necessitate an AIRMET for low level turbulence later today.

Marine

Winds will become fresh to locally strong over the next few days as a high far northeast of the area builds southwest. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for waters around the Big Island and Maui. The SCA may need to be expanded in coverage towards the end of the week as the trade winds strengthen further.
A new south swell building this morning will likely peak tonight, then slowly subside through Friday. A larger south swell is expected to arrive on Independence Day and peak late Monday into Tuesday. Surf from this swell could reach advisory levels over the holiday weekend. A small northwest swell is expected Friday into Saturday. Strengthening trade winds may bring an increase of choppy surf along east facing shores late this week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov