Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 96. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 73. East northeast wind 7 to 9 mph.

Thursday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. East northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. East northeast wind 7 to 9 mph.

Thursday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 16 to 21 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. East wind around 11 mph.

Thursday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with an east wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. East northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East northeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. East northeast wind around 9 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. East northeast wind around 8 mph.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. East northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Thursday: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will decrease beginning today, leading to less windward rainfall. By Friday and Saturday, local land and sea breezes will create a pattern of afternoon clouds and showers over interior and leeward areas, followed by night time clearing. Trade winds will ramp back up by Sunday, reaching breezy levels once again through early next week.

Discussion

The subtropical ridge far north of the main Hawaiian Islands keeps the pressure gradient steep enough to support moderate trade winds across local waters this morning. Satellite loop shows areas of broken low clouds moving across windward and mauka portions of the islands, while radar shows scattered showers within these clouds. Overnight soundings show a strong inversion near 6800 feet, which caps deep convection and limits total rainfall. Expect the current pattern to continue for the next few days, with scattered showers riding in on the trades, focusing over windward areas.
Troughing expected to develop north and northeast of the islands beginning today will put a dent in the subtropical ridge, causing the pressure gradient across the islands to slacken. Trades will gradually weaken beginning later today, becoming light to moderate by Thursday and Friday. Winds will gradually veer toward the east and become east-southeast on Friday. Afternoon sea breezes will likely develop across select leeward areas and we should see clouds and showers develop over interior and leeward areas on Friday afternoon and possibly Saturday afternoon as well. Trades will begin filling in from east to west late Saturday and we should see breezy conditions across the state by Sunday. Scattered showers will once again be focused over windward areas and we should continue to see this pattern through early next week.

Aviation

The trade winds have diminished into the light to moderate range, and will remain at this range for the next couple of days. Therefore, AIRMET Tango has been lowered.
Satellite imagery shows large patches of low cloud with embedded showers pushing through the islands from the east. Persistent showers have lead to an AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration on Oahu. The windward side of the remaining islands are being threatened with an AIRMET Sierra as well. The frequency of these showers will be becoming less through this morning. We are anticipating Sierra to be canceled by 20z. Tops of these clouds are between 8k and 10k feet.
In the afternoon, the slightly lighter trades will lead to local sea breezes, which in turn result in some clouds and showers over the far western end of some islands such as Kauai and Oahu, and to especially the lee side of the Big Island.

Marine

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will gradually ease over the next few days as high pressure north of the islands weakens. As the winds have lessened sufficiently this early morning, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. However, high pressure will rebuild during the weekend, leading to increased trade winds and SCA conditions once again.
A High Surf Advisory continues for south facing shores through this afternoon. However, south shore surf has been fading and will continue to decline through Friday, and drop to background levels during the weekend.
East shore surf will subside over the next few days as trade winds weaken across the region. The short-period energy will steadily decrease today and Thursday, then rebuild to near average late Saturday and Sunday as trade winds strengthen. A tiny northwest swell will decline, leading to a return to nearly flat north shore conditions later today.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Kahoolawe, Maui Leeward West, Kona, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Molokai Southeast, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley South, Kipahulu, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov