Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. East northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. South southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Scattered showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

North Shore

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east northeast wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Windy, with an east northeast wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Windy, with an east wind 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Windy, with a north northeast wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Windy, with a north northeast wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Windy, with a northeast wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. West southwest wind around 10 mph.

Monday: Scattered showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. West wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. East wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 67. East wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Monday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 83. East wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Monday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 21 mph becoming light north northeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with an east wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Monday: Isolated showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge will remain in place far north of the Hawaiian Islands producing moderate to breezy trade winds through the week. Passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas in this pattern with lower chances for showers over leeward locations. Periods of high level cirrus clouds are also expected through the week.

Discussion

A high pressure ridge far north of the main Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast through the week. A narrow upper trough shown on water vapor imagery just north of the state will help to weaken the trade wind inversion, leading to higher shower coverage. Two low level troughs will move through the islands from Monday to Thursday enhancing local area showers a bit. A subtropical jet near the islands will produce periods of high level cirrus ice clouds through the week improving sunrise and sunset colors.
A moderate to breezy trade winds weather pattern will keep mostly fair weather in the forecast with passing showers favoring windward and mountain areas. Shower activity will trend higher windward locations in the overnight to early morning hours.
Model streamlines are showing a low level (700 mb) trough, currently near 146W, approaching the islands from the east. Wind convergence on the eastern side of this trough should spread enhanced showers Westward from the Big Island to Kauai on Monday. Another weak low level trough moves through the state on Wednesday enhancing local shower activity into Thursday.

Aviation

Locally strong trade winds, combined with modest instability supplied by a nearby upper-level trough, will result in active trade wind showers this morning, primarily over and near Kauai and Oahu. While VFR conditions will prevail, periods of MVFR VIS/CIG in SHRA are expected, and AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is posted for N thru E sections of those islands, but clearing from E to W is expected later this morning. AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence over and downstream of the terrain will remain posted for all islands.

Marine

As a weak surface trough far northwest of the state travels west, ridging will reestablish itself from the northeast. Northern high pressure will strengthen and move east the next few days. This will keep the northeast-to-southwest pressure gradient across the local waters tight enough to support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds the next several days. Locally strong trades has expanded the ongoing Small Craft Advisory in both time and space to include all of the waters from the Kaiwi Channel eastward through Monday afternoon.
Background southerly swell will maintain small surf along south facing shorelines through the middle of the week. A slight strengthening of easterly trades in the coming days will hold short period, slightly elevated wind waves along many eastern exposures. A series of gales traveling north and east of New Zealand will send swells northward within Hawaii’s southern swell window. These long period, small south swells may arrive sometime next weekend and provide a minor boost to southern shore surf.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all eastern waters and channels.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov