Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 96. East northeast wind around 11 mph.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. East northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 97. East northeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

South Side

Today: Increasing clouds, with a high near 87. East wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers between 7pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 70. East northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Isolated showers after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 86. East northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east wind 16 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east wind 16 to 21 mph increasing to 23 to 28 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Central Maui

Today: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Windy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east wind 14 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 76. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Breezy, with an east wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 75. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

East Maui

Today: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny, with a high near 80. East northeast wind around 13 mph.

Tonight: Scattered showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. East northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers before 7am, then isolated showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. East northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 96. Breezy, with an east northeast wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Breezy, with an east wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 90. Breezy, with an east wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north of the islands will support breezy trade winds through the weekend. Stronger trades may develop early next week. Low clouds will move over the islands from the east, occasionally dropping showers over windward areas, with increased showers expected to move in later tonight and lasting into Saturday night.

Discussion

High pressure northeast and north of the islands will keep trade winds blowing across local waters for the foreseeable future. A high to the northeast will dissipate this weekend as a new high builds to our north. The central pressure of this new high may peak near 1036 mb early next week, steepening the pressure gradient enough to drive locally windy conditions Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, breezy trade winds will prevail.
Satellite loop shows a vast field of stable low clouds between Hawaii and the mainland, with showery open-celled cumulus immediately upstream of the islands. These clouds will move in today through Saturday night as a weak mid-level trough replaces the current ridge. The subsidence inversion near 7000 feet will weaken and rise, leading to increased showers mainly across windward areas. Otherwise, expect patches of broken low clouds to provide a few windward showers, with rainfall favoring nights and mornings. Leeward areas will remain mostly dry, with only brief and light rainfall expected.

Aviation

Breezy easterly trade winds will continue through the weekend, with clouds and showers focusing over windward and mauka locations. MVFR CIGS/VIS are possible in and around passing showers. AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence will remain in effect through the weekend.

Marine

Surface high pressure located far north of the area will maintain locally strong trade winds and rough seas across the state through this weekend. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island this weekend. Due to additional strengthening of the trade winds early next week, it is likely the SCA will need to be expanded to include more Hawaiian Waters starting Monday.
Buoy observations from south of the state appear to indicate the current south swell, which has a period of around 16 seconds, will continue to build today. This will likely cause surf heights to increase to near or just above the summertime average along south facing shores from this afternoon into Monday. This south swell will gradually decline early next week, so expect surf to return to below normal heights along south facing shores by the mid-week. The gusty trade winds will produce near summertime average, choppy surf along east facing shores this weekend. The stronger trades, which are forecast early next week, are expected to produce elevated, rough surf along east facing shores starting Monday. Besides some localized wrap of trade wind swell, surf along most north facing shores will likely remain essentially flat through early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov