Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east northeast wind 17 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Windy, with an east northeast wind around 26 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Windy, with an east northeast wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 14 to 19 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 88. South southwest wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 70. South wind around 7 mph becoming north northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. North northeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming west southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east northeast wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Scattered showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tonight: Scattered showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Scattered showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. West wind 6 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. West southwest wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southeast after midnight.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Breezy, with a southeast wind 7 to 12 mph becoming east northeast 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

East Maui

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 78. Windy, with a northeast wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Windy, with a northeast wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Monday: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 80. Windy, with a northeast wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Breezy, with an east wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

The dry and breezy summertime trade wind pattern will persist through much of the week. With the exception of the Kona slopes, the drought conditions will continue over leeward areas with limited rainfall chances in the forecast. Any showers that do develop will be brief and favor windward and mauka locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours as pockets of moisture move through.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the dry and stable trade wind conditions prevailing through much of the week as high pressure strengthens to the north. Easterly trade winds will respond and become strong later today through the first half of the week. Winds may near the advisory criteria in the typically windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island by Monday afternoon. Although limited rainfall is anticipated over our dry leeward areas where drought conditions prevail, the strong trades may offer some potential for a few brief showers reaching these parched soils. The best rainfall chances will remain over windward/mauka areas overnight through the early morning hours. For the extended, it remains too early to determine whether or not any remnant moisture from the tropical systems currently (Felicia/Guillermo) in the eastern Pacific will move into the area later this week into next weekend.

Aviation

A high pressure system far north of the islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast today. An upper level disturbance will produce passing showers, favoring windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for Mountain Obscuration over north and east sections of Oahu and Kauai due to low cloud ceilings and showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for Moderate Turbulence over and south through west of island mountains due to the stronger trade winds. This AIRMET will remain in effect through Monday.

Marine

Surface high pressure located far north of the area will produce strong trade winds and elevated, rough seas across the state through Tuesday. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for most waters surrounding the islands. Based on the latest forecast trends, the SCA may be required for only the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island from Wednesday through Thursday.
The current south swell will likely hold into this evening, then will gradually trend lower from late tonight through Monday. This is expected to maintain surf heights near or above the summer average along south facing shores into Monday. This south swell will continue to subside Tuesday and Wednesday, returning surf along south facing shores to below normal summertime heights by mid-week. The strengthening trade winds will result in slightly elevated, rough surf along east facing shores through the first half of the new week. Besides some localized wrap of trade wind swell, surf along most north facing shores will remain essentially flat through mid-week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov