Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Windy, with an east northeast wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. Windy, with an east northeast wind 22 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Windy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 70. South southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Friday: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east wind 17 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.

Friday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming east 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. East northeast wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. East wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Windy, with a northeast wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Windy, with a northeast wind 18 to 23 mph decreasing to 11 to 16 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph.

Friday: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 79. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 75. Breezy, with an east wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind 7 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy easterly trade winds will continue into the weekend, then potentially ease slightly late Sunday through early next week. A transition from the dry summertime trade wind pattern to a wetter period appears possible over the weekend through early next week as areas of tropical moisture associated with former Tropical Cyclones Felicia and Guillermo move through from east to west.

Discussion

Guidance remains persistent and continues to advertise a moistening trend over the weekend as the remnant low/trough associated with former TC Felicia passes well to the south Friday into Saturday and former TC Guillermo approaches and moves through from east to west Sunday through Monday as a weak trough. Satellite-derived precipitable water (PW) imagery reflects the northern fringe of higher moisture (PW 1.5-8″) north of Felicia lurking east of the Big Island and a much larger area farther upstream associated with former Guillermo.
Shower coverage will respond and increase this weekend through early next week, especially over windward and mauka locations as these areas of moisture move through. Some of this activity will spill over into our dry leeward areas with the breezy trades in place. Trades may trend down slightly early next week, depending on exactly where the remnant trough moves through. In addition to the increasing moisture and rainfall chances, the lighter winds combined with dewpoints breaking into the lower 70s will lead humid conditions beginning around or by Sunday.

Aviation

Dense high clouds are obstructing the view of the low clouds riding in with the trade winds. Weather radar is showing a batch of showers about to move through Oahu and that is about it. Not much showers after that it appears. Should more showers appears, they will be favoring the windward and mountain areas causing some brief periods of MVFR ceiling and vis. The leeward slopes and Kona coast of the Big Island will see an increase in low clouds this afternoon along with a few showers. Tops of the showers will be 7k to 10k feet.
The dense cirrus clouds with bases as low as 15k feet are expected to thin out as the day progresses. The high level turb above fl300 will also be easing by 22z as the jet stream shifts north of the islands, thus lowering AIRMET Tango.
A broad surface high pressure located far north-northwest of Kauai will maintain moderate to strong trade winds through this evening. Hence, AIRMET Tango for low level turbulence will continue through this afternoon.

Marine

Trades will begin to decrease late today or Friday as high pressure north of the state weakens. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most Hawaiian waters through this afternoon. The SCA may be scaled back to the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui tonight through Saturday afternoon. The SCA may be dropped entirely on Sunday as trades ease to moderate strength.
The largest surf will be found along east and south facing shores. Rough trade wind swell will maintain east shore surf near or slightly above July average during the next couple of days, followed by a slow decline to below average this weekend and early next week. A swell from the south-southwest will bring south shore surf near July average today and Friday. No other significant swells are expected.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov