Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 96. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 8 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 75. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 18 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 96. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 69. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Saturday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Light and variable wind.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with a northeast wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Saturday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 96. East northeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 75. East northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 95. East northeast wind 8 to 13 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds over the region through Saturday. Weak upper level troughing will also keep brief passing showers in the forecast favoring windward and mountain areas into Saturday. The high center will drift further northeast on Sunday decreasing trade wind speeds a bit into early next week with decreasing shower coverage in the forecast. Increasing shower trends are likely by the middle of next week.

Discussion

This mornings satellite imagery continues to show a large band of unstable clouds east of the islands drifting westward across the state. Local radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers developing in these cloud bands as they ride into each island on the trade winds. The highest shower coverage is occurring over windward and mountain areas with additional showers developing along island cloud plumes over coastal waters just to the west of island mountains.
A strong high pressure system far north of the islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast through Saturday. These elevated wind speeds and upper level troughing will keep passing showers in the forecast favoring the windward and mountain areas, with just a few showers possible over drier leeward locations. The highest chances for showers will develop in the overnight to early morning hours.
The high center will drift further northeastward away from the islands on Sunday and Monday, decreasing trade wind speeds across the region. More stable conditions aloft will also lead to decreasing shower trends on Sunday and Monday.
Long range model guidance continues to show a low level disturbance with abundant moisture passing through the islands from the middle to end of next week. This deeper moisture and instability is associated with the remnants of a dissipated tropical cyclone. Expect increasing rainfall activity spreading from east to west from late Tuesday onward as this unstable air mass drifts slowly westward across the island chain. The arrival timing may vary a bit for each island.

Aviation

Breezy easterly trade wind conditions will persist into the weekend. As a result, AIRMET Tango remains in place for low- level mechanical turbulence downstream of the mountains. Although VFR conditions will prevail for most areas, MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible in and around passing showers (best chances overnight through the morning hours for windward/mauka locations).
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration over windward areas will remain in effect through the morning hours today from Oahu to the Big Island. Gradual improvement is expected through the late morning and afternoon periods.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to strong trades in place through the weekend, although the trades should edge downward on Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect from the leeward Oahu waters eastward with the exception of the windward Big Island waters through 6 AM Saturday. The SCA continues for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM Sunday, and will likely need to be extended through the remainder of the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will hold near the summertime average through the weekend. East shore surf will then gradually lower to slightly below normal levels by the middle to latter part of next week.
Small background south swells will keep surf below seasonal levels through Monday. A new long period south swell is forecast to arrive Monday night, with surf approaching the summertime average Tuesday through late next week.
Expect nearly flat conditions along most north facing shores through Monday. A new long-period west-northwest swell is expected to arrive Monday night and give a noticeable boost to north shore surf Tuesday through Thursday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov