Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Rest Of Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 89. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 15 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A surface high pressure system centered northeast of the islands will maintain trade winds across the area through early next week. Trades are currently light to moderate, but a boost will come this Friday to locally strong, and continue through Saturday night as the high shifts closer to the islands. A gradual softening of the trades will then follow through Monday as a surface trough approaches the islands from the east. An upper level disturbance accompanying the low level feature will help enhance some of the showers on Monday.

Discussion

The main Hawaiian Islands is under a light to moderate trade wind regime this morning. The 1032 mb surface high is centered well over 1500 miles northeast of the islands which at this distance is accounting for the weakness in the trades. But this high will be shifting closer to the islands during the next 48 hours where we expect a boost in the trades to locally strong by Friday, lasting through Saturday. A gradual weakening of the trades follow into Monday as a surface trough cuts through the islands. The surface trough will have the aid of an upper level disturbance that will enhance some of the showers.
A tropical air mass currently lies over the islands, but an area of clouds and showers is located just off Cape Kumukahi Big Island. It looks like this area of enhanced moisture will affect the Big Island with spill over to windward Maui and possibly windward Molokai later this morning. There is a mention of the possibility that a few of these showers will be heavy for the Big Island. Some thinning and dissipating of this moisture field is expected for the northern part of the Big Island starting sometime this afternoon.
Weakness in the trades will lead to a mix of trades and sea breezes, with sea breezes developing after sunrise over the west and lee side of the islands west of Maui. The addition of daytime heating will result in some local afternoon clouds and showers.
This tropical air mass will be replaced by a drier and stable airmass by Thursday, lasting into the weekend. More or less we are expecting the continuation of a trade wind shower pattern, although on the drier than normal side of the spectrum.
On Monday, a low level trough accompany by an upper level disturbance may be making its way over the islands from the east. The low level trough will weaken the trades, while the upper level disturbance will help enhance the showers.

Aviation

Light to moderate easterly trade winds will continue through the period with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. A batch of low clouds associated with a weak trough moving in from the east will support periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS through the morning hours today (eastern end of the island chain). As a result, AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration will likely continue this morning from Molokai to the Big Island.

Marine

A surface high pressure system located far north-northeast of the state will maintain moderate trades through Thursday. A new surface high pressure system is expected to build north of the islands as we head into the weekend. The latest forecast indicates locally strong trade winds could return starting Friday, with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions likely developing across the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island. The SCA may be required for these windier areas through Saturday, followed by weaker trades starting Sunday.
The recent observations from the nearshore PacIOOS buoys are reporting a swell height of 3 to 4 feet with a period of around 15 seconds due to the current south-southwest swell. This swell, which is maintaining slightly elevated surf along south facing shores, is expected to peak later today, and then gradually lower from tonight through Thursday. A small, reinforcing south- southwest swell is expected to arrive Friday, followed by a larger swell from the same direction starting Sunday. The latter swell will likely be long-lived, with a peak in the Tuesday through Wednesday time period next week.
Active tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific has been sending small, back-to-back west-northwest swell energy toward the region. The PacIOOS buoy at Hanalei shows a small west- northwest swell of around 2 feet with a period of about 14 seconds early this morning. This will cause surf to trend up along exposed north and west facing shores today. This swell may lower by Thursday morning, with another small, reinforcing west- northwest swell reaching Kauai late Thursday. A slightly larger west-northwest swell may arrive this weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will continue to lower due to the lighter trade winds locally and upstream of the islands. A tiny, short-period northeast swell may arrive this weekend, but surf will likely remain small along east facing shores into early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov