Photo Credit: Randy Alona Gallegos

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. North winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 74 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 75 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 65 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast through Friday. Trade wind speeds will weaken this weekend as an upper level disturbance forms just north of the state. Passing showers remain in the forecast mainly over windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours for most islands into Saturday. Localized sea breezes may develop on Sunday and Monday. Trade winds strengthen from Tuesday onward as the high pressure ridge builds north of the state.

Discussion

Scattered showers are developing across the state as shown by local radar products. Satellite imagery shows fairly stable cumulus and stratocumulus clouds drifting into the state on the trade winds. These upstream clouds will continue to drift over windward and mountain areas and produce passing showers into Saturday. A few high level cirrus clouds are also drifting over the western islands from a weak subtropical jet stream.
Sunday and Monday…The pattern changes a bit in the Central Pacific basin as an upper level low deepens northeast of the state and drifts westward, passing just north of the island chain. Long range guidance shows a weak trough developing in the surface wind and pressure fields, which may weaken the winds over the islands and potentially shifting the winds from a more southeasterly direction. These weakening large scale winds may lead to localized sea breezes along terrain sheltered western slopes of each island. However, there are roughly equal chances that we stay in a moderate trade wind weather pattern if this weather pattern does not play out as current model guidance indicates. This sea breeze forecast depends greatly on the strength and location of this developing upper low. The current forecast grids show decreasing trade wind speed trends with localized sea breezes and these conditions seem reasonable at this time.
Tuesday and Wednesday…The high pressure ridge north of the state will strengthen with increasing trade wind trends in the forecast. Shower activity will once again favor windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning time periods.

Aviation

Breezy easterly trade winds will continue through the 24-hr forecast period, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS will remain possible in and around passing showers, especially through the overnight and early morning hours. AIRMET Tango will remain in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate to locally strong trades through tonight. The trades will gradually decrease Thursday through Saturday as the high shifts northeast and further away from the area. A trough is expected to develop north of the state Sunday through early next week, decreasing the trades even further, with localized daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes possible. The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to include much of the marine area through 6 AM Thursday, and will likely continue through at least 6 PM Thursday for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island.
Surf will remain below advisory levels along all shores for the next 7 days. East shore surf should hold close to seasonal levels through Thursday, lower slightly Friday, then hold at much below normal levels Saturday through early next week. Along south facing shores, several small southerly swells are expected during the next 7 days. The largest of the swells is forecast to move through over the weekend, boosting south shore surf close to the summertime average.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov