Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 88. East winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will decrease slowly through Saturday, then more rapidly from Sunday into the middle of next week. Low clouds and showers will favor windward areas, especially during nights and mornings, through Saturday. Fewer windward showers are expected Sunday and afterwards, with increased afternoon clouds and showers expected over leeward and interior areas.

Discussion

There is little to no change in forecast philosophy from last evening. A high far northeast of the islands will drift east over the next few days, causing our moderate to locally breezy trade winds to gradually decrease. Trade winds will continue to deliver showers to windward areas, mainly during nights and mornings. Leeward Big Island slopes will see a few afternoon showers.
Models show an upper low northeast of the islands will become better developed and move generally west over the next few days, gradually inducing the formation of a broad low-level trough. This trough will pass north of the islands, causing trade winds to become light from Sunday into the middle of next week. With lighter winds, expect fewer windward showers. Across leeward areas, overnight and morning land breezes will give way to afternoon sea breezes which will increase cloud cover and produce a few showers. By midweek, models indicate the possibility of cold air aloft destabilizing our airmass, most notably over the western end of the island chain.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue through the 24-hr forecast period, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain locations. Periods of MVFR CIGS/VIS are possible in and around passing showers, especially through the overnight and early morning hours. AIRMET Tango will likely be dropped later this morning as the trades begin to ease slightly.

Marine

Trade winds will gradually ease over the weekend and into early next week as a weak surface trough approaches and passes north of the state. This will result in light winds with localized land/sea breezes developing by early in the new week. The Small Craft Advisory that had been in effect has been cancelled as winds are on the decrease.
A small south swell is expected over the weekend and will likely boost surf to around the summer average on south facing shores. A small southeast swell is also expected early next week. Surf along east facing shores will gradually decrease over the next several days as the trade wind flow weakens. No significant swells are expected through next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov