Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds around 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 67. North winds 15 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 85 to 90. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 85 to 91. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 90. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 89. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will decrease slightly today, then diminish further on Sunday, remaining light to moderate for most of next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas. Leeward areas may see increased afternoon clouds and showers after trade flow weakens.

Discussion

A high remains north of the islands, driving strong trades winds across the area this morning. There is little or no change in forecast philosophy from last evening, other than keeping a Small Craft Advisory up through this afternoon for all coastal waters due to continued strong winds seen in an overnight ASCAT pass. Satellite loop shows an area of low clouds affecting windward and southeast portions of the Big Island as well as windward portions of Maui, but not a lot of clouds immediately upstream of the remaining islands. Overnight soundings show PW values have recovered a bit from yesterday afternoon, ranging now from 1.30 to 1.35 inches. Scarce cloud cover and short linger times due to strong winds will keep rainfall light through the weekend.
As surface winds pick up after sunrise today, they will not be quite as strong as they were yesterday. Models show winds will continue to trend down Sunday into Monday as a low and front pass far north of the area, weakening the ridge north of the region. This should return us to a light to moderate trade wind pattern for most of next week. A closed upper low is expected to form northeast of the islands Sunday night and a surface trough is expected to form beneath it. This combination will contribute to weaker winds at that time. Lighter trades will deliver a few windward showers during nights and mornings, with afternoon sea breezes potentially driving the formation of clouds and a few showers over leeward areas.

Aviation

Robust high pressure far north of the area is sustaining breezy to locally strong trade winds across the isles, with a modest easing of the trades anticipated today. Most locales will remain VFR through tonight, with brief MVFR possible in lower clouds and showers mainly in windward and mauka sections from time to time.
An AIRMET for low level turbulence remains in effect to the lee of the mountains across the island chain, with it likely to be extended through this afternoon.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will continue to produce breezy to locally windy trade winds for most areas through today. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all Hawaiian Coastal Waters through this afternoon. The high will begin to weaken later today through early next week. In response, trade winds will begin to lower in strength later today, and become light to locally moderate Sunday through Wednesday. The SCA will likely remain posted for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island through tonight but may be lowered over the remaining Hawaiian Coastal Waters later today.
There will be a series of small south swells through the rest of the weekend and on through the middle of next week with a slightly larger south swell possible later in the week. Trade winds in the South Pacific will continue to produce a small, short period southeast swell throughout the forecast period. Elevated surf along east facing shores will gradually lower later today as trade winds speeds ease through early next week. No other significant swells are expected.

Fire weather

Strong trade winds, combined with the Keetch- Byram Drought Index (KBDI) over 600 and low relative humidity, support continuation of the Red Flag Warning (RFW) for leeward areas of nearly all islands. Winds are expected to ease a bit, but will be strong enough to warrant continuing the RFW through this afternoon. Expect lower relative humidities again this afternoon during the heat of the day and expect winds to pick up again after sunrise, peaking during the afternoon hours.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Leeward, Oahu South Shore, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Molokai Leeward, Maui Leeward West, Maui Central Valley, Leeward Haleakala, Kona, Kohala, Big Island Interior.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov