Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers late in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 69 to 75. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 74. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then showers likely in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 84 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then showers likely in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny until late afternoon then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 89. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 58 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trade winds today and Saturday will strengthen on Sunday, becoming locally breezy through at least Monday. Winds may diminish again on Tuesday and Wednesday. The trade winds will deliver a few clouds and showers to windward areas, mainly during nights and mornings. Today’s lighter winds will allow afternoon sea breezes to bring clouds and few showers to some leeward areas.

Discussion

Light to moderate NE trade winds prevail at the moment, due to a surface trough to the NE and surface highs centered to the NW and NE of the islands. With this synoptic set-up, winds are weakest over the E end of the chain, but have become fairly light over most of the state overnight, allowing land breezes to develop in many locations. Satellite and radar imagery highlight a slight overnight increase in showery low clouds moving into windward areas from the NE, and although it’s a little wetter than yesterday, coverage remains somewhat limited.
As the trough moves closer to the longitude of the islands this weekend, it will weaken and dissipate while the surface highs consolidate to the NE. The resulting tightening of the low-level pressure gradient is expected to support a trend toward locally breezy ENE trade winds for most areas Saturday night into Sunday, although a lingering weakness in the gradient may keep winds weaker near the Big Island.
A strong low-level subsidence inversion will keep the island atmosphere capped into next week, while an anticipated increase in low-level moisture arriving from the NE has led to a modest increase in shower coverage. With the lighter winds today, afternoon sea breezes may become sufficiently strong to drive some leeward clouds/showers, and potentially again tomorrow. Thereafter, guidance indicates a fairly typical trade wind weather regime into next week, with passing low clouds and showers occasionally delivering a few showers, mainly windward.
Declining trade winds and some instability are possible around the middle of next week as a low aloft passes N of the islands. The low may induce the development of yet another low-level trough that eases the local pressure gradient, while also bringing mid- and high- level clouds over the area. Model guidance is somewhat divergent, reducing forecast confidence.

Aviation

Light to locally moderate trade winds will persist through twenty- four hours and beyond. Bands of light showers will impact mainly north and northeast facing slopes and coasts. Brief periods of MVFR CIG or VIS are to expected in passing showers. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail all areas.
Light sea breezes across Leeward Big Island will promote convective development over south and west facing slopes this afternoon and evening. However, a strong inversion aloft around 09 kft will limit vertical development, so few associated showers are expected.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for high level turbulence statewide. Conditions are expected to end later today as the upper level jet shifts well east of the islands.

Marine

An upper level disturbance northeast of the islands will wobble around north of the state into next week keeping periods of wet weather in the forecast. The high pressure ridge will remain strong enough to produce light to moderate trade winds today, trending up into the moderate to locally fresh range from Saturday into the first half of next week.
A series of small long period southeast to south swells will continue to keep surf heights along south facing shores just below seasonal average heights into early next week. Another increase in the south swell action may arrive by late Wednesday.
Small trade wind surf will continue along east facing shores this week.
Smaller surf remains in the forecast for north and west facing shores. A small northeast trade swell wrap and a small, medium period, north-northwest swell may keep surf heights just above flat conditions into early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov