Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 89. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 72 to 79. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 71 to 79. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 74 near the shore to 53 to 58 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 76. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 74 near the shore to 53 to 58 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 89. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 62 to 78. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 69 to 90. East winds 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A trough north of the state will weaken winds into the light to moderate range today. Sea breezes will develop which could trigger increased showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Moisture moving in from the southeast will produce more showers, primarily for windward Big Island areas tonight. Trade winds will increase Thursday, with conditions expected to dry out through the day. Expect a trade wind weather pattern afterwards through the forecast period.

Discussion

An upper low far north moved southwest overnight and lies a few hundred miles north of Oahu this morning. Surface troughing associated with this upper low will pass just north of the state on today, causing local winds to ease and veer toward the east- southeast. Localized sea breezes will lead to scattered showers across the state. Some of these showers may be briefly heavy in the afternoon due to instability associated with the nearby upper low.
Increased moisture is expected to move in from the southeast this afternoon and tonight, fueling briefly heavy showers across east and southeast facing areas of the Big Island and Maui. The rest of the island chain will be shadowed from the Big Island, but scattered showers, some briefly heavy, may occur.
Thursday will be a transition day as the trough begins to move away from the state and high pressure builds to the north. Showery conditions are still expected as breezy trades fill back in from the east. Lingering moisture and instability are expected over the western end of the state, which could lead to brief heavy rainfall over Kauai on Thursday. By Friday, strong trade winds will return across the state with drier conditions. A trade wind weather pattern is then expected to continue through the rest of the forecast period.

Aviation

An upper level low passing just north of the Hawaiian Islands will enhance showers and clouds across the region into Thursday. Light to moderate trade winds will push these clouds across each island favoring the windward and mountain areas. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible favoring the overnight to early morning hours.
AIRMETs for Mountain Obscuration remains in effect for north and east sections from Kauai through the Big Island.

Marine

A trough of low pressure will pass by to the north of the state today and tonight, easing the trades across the marine area. The trades will ramp back up to locally strong levels Thursday through the weekend, as the trough exits and a new high builds north of the island chain. Winds will likely reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds over the typically windy waters around Maui and Big Island on Thursday, with SCAs expected to expand to most if not all waters Friday and Saturday. The trades should then ease slightly Sunday through early next week as the high to the distant north weakens.
A series of long period south and southwest swells will keep surf along south facing shores near to slightly above the September average through Thursday, before gradually lowering Friday through early next week. Small surf will prevail along north facing shores through the remainder of the work week, with a small bump from a northwest swell expected this weekend. Another small but slightly larger northwest swell is possible Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. East shore surf will remain well below normal today, rise to near seasonal levels Thursday through Saturday as trade winds ramp up over and upstream of the islands, then lower a notch Sunday into early next week as the trade winds ease.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov