Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for October 22, 2021

October 22, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
Listen to this Article
5 minutes
Loading Audio... Article will play after ad...
Playing in :00
A
A
A

no slideshow

Photo Credit: Pamela Goguen Lynch

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the southeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 65 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 70. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 82. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 73 to 82. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 67 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 56 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 66 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A band of low clouds and showers will bring scattered showers to Kauai and Oahu through tonight. An area of tropical moisture will move onto the Big Island tonight through Saturday morning and bring increased showers. Trade winds will gradually strengthen through the weekend before tapering off Tuesday.

Discussion

Infrared satellite this morning shows a northeast to southwest oriented band of low clouds draped over Kauai and Oahu associated with a surface trough. Individual cloud elements within the band are tracking to the west southwest by moderate to locally fresh trade winds. Radar shows scattered showers mainly impacting the windward slopes of both islands. A weak, nearly stationary front lies about 300 miles north of Hawaii. A high pressure system behind the front is driving the trade winds.
Another, stronger high will develop far to the north Saturday night and dig closer to island chain resulting in a slight strengthening of the winds this weekend. Trades will direct any incoming clouds and showers over windward sides of the islands, with some showers occasionally reaching leeward sides of the smaller islands.
The band of clouds and showers currently over Kauai and Oahu is expected to remain in place today and then slowly move west of the state tonight. Kauai could still see a few lingering showers into Saturday. Meanwhile, Maui County should remain mostly sunny and dry. To the east, an area of tropical moisture will move in late in the day today over the windward and southeast sections of the Big Island and bring a boost in showers likely through Saturday morning. This area of moisture will pass south of the smaller islands over the weekend.
The front to the north is expected to slowly dissipate over the next couple of days, but a slight backing of the trade wind direction on Sunday could bring a little bit of the upstream remnant clouds and showers over the state late Saturday into Monday.
Long range GFS and ECMWF show a cutoff upper low tracking in from the northeast over the Big Island Monday and Tuesday before lifting back to the northeast Wednesday and Thursday. A backdoor cold front also approaches from the northeast and stalls around midweek. Trade winds will weaken on Tuesday as this front approaches.

Aviation

The shower band that brought increased low clouds and showers into windward and mountain areas of Oahu overnight has dispersed somewhat early this morning, but will gradually shift westward today, allowing shower activity to increase over windward Kauai as well. Elsewhere, isolated -SHRA and VFR conditions will prevail.
Trade winds are expected to strengthen through tonight, which will bring an increase in shower activity along windward portions the remaining islands, beginning with the Big Island late this evening and spreading westward into early Saturday morning.
AIRMET SIERRA for tempo mountain obscuration on Oahu has been dropped as shower activity has decreased. As the trades strengthen today, AIRMET Tango may be needed for low-level turbulence in the lee of the mountains.

Marine

No significant changes to the coastal waters forecast this morning. Frontal remnants remain near the islands but will continue to dissipate today. A new high building north of the area will boost trade winds into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typical windier waters near Maui county and the Big Island through Saturday but will likely be extended as SCA level winds will likely persist into early next week.
A new north swell is expected to arrive later this morning, and boost surf along exposed shores through Saturday. The swell looks likely to peak tonight just below advisory levels. The potential remains for this swell to produce moderate harbor surges in the Kahului and Hilo harbors, however have held off on issuing a statement until we see some evidence of the swell at the buoys. East facing shores with northerly exposure will also see a boost in surf with this swell. During the Sunday through Wednesday time period, a series of small north and north northwest swells can be expected.
Small, mainly background south and southeast swells are expected through Monday with a slightly larger south swell expected to fill in Tuesday and Wednesday. As the trade winds rebound, they will produce short period choppy surf along east facing shores through the weekend with a slight downward trend expected into the middle of next week as trade wind speeds decrease.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

E-Mail Newsletters Receive daily or weekly updates via e-mail. Subscribe Now
News Alerts Breaking news alerts on your mobile device. Get the App

Comments

This comments section is a public community forum for the purpose of free expression. Although Maui Now encourages respectful communication only, some content may be considered offensive. Please view at your own discretion. View Comments