Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 83. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 82. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 86. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 85. North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 85. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. East winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 61 to 72. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 65. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 82. Light winds becoming east 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 75 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 69. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trades and relatively dry conditions are expected through mid-week. A few brief trade showers are possible mainly along windward facing sections of the state. The background flow will become light and variable from Friday through this weekend, which will allow local afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to develop. This may result in some clouds and a chance of showers over leeward and interior sections of the islands each afternoon, followed by clearing skies at night.

Discussion

A 1025 mb surface high centered near 32N 145W, or almost 1100 miles northeast of Honolulu, is moving east at about 30 mph. Elsewhere, the diffuse southern edge of a band of broken low clouds with embedded scattered showers associated with the remnants of a nearly east to west oriented frontal boundary is about 215 miles north of Hilo, and about 90 miles north of Lihue. This feature, in addition to the fact that the surface high is moving rapidly east away from the area, is causing the pressure gradient to gradually relax across the region. This is weakening the trade winds early this morning. The atmosphere is also rather dry at the moment, so there are mainly areas of low clouds with isolated light trade showers streaming into some windward facing sections of the island chain, especially the eastern islands.
The forecast guidance indicates the surface high will continue moving far east-northeast of here through tonight. A new front moving down from the northwest toward the state Wednesday will also keep the pressure gradient relatively weak across the region through mid-week, even though this front stalls and weakens before reaching Kauai. Therefore, the background trade wind flow will be light to moderate through mid-week. Some of the moisture from the front may be near the western islands from late Wednesday through Thursday, so there might be a slight increase in low clouds and showers over some of the western islands. Otherwise, generally dry conditions will likely prevail over most areas.
By Friday, the surface ridge is expected to move down into the vicinity of the islands. This will disrupt the trade winds, and produce light and variable background flow through this weekend. As a result, expect a weather pattern with alternating local afternoon sea breeze and nighttime land breeze circulations over each of the islands. It will also be somewhat dry. but clouds and a few showers may develop over leeward and interior sections of the islands each afternoon. The downslope winds at night will likely result in clearing skies.

Aviation

Trade winds will continue to trend lower today and tonight, with some sea breezes likely in the most sheltered spots today, and land breezes developing across much of the island chain tonight. Very dry conditions are expected through today, with only a few windward showers possible, mainly across the eastern end of the state. A batch of moisture could bring an increase in showers and some MVFR cigs/vsbys to windward sections of Maui County and Oahu late today or tonight.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

High pressure centered northeast of Hawaii that has recently been supporting moderate to fresh trade winds will be moving east. As this high progressively advances eastward through mid week, a couple of North Pacific fronts will approach and stall out as they near the far north offshore waters Thursday and then again on Saturday. These fronts will weaken the pressure gradient across the Hawaiian coastal and offshore waters as the ridge axis gets nudged closer to the islands. Thus, regional winds will fall off to just light and gentle breezes beginning today. These light breezes will persist throughout the remainder of the week.
The current north swell will be peaking early today and then slowly falling tonight into Wednesday. An overlapping small, but slightly longer period, northwest swell will fill in tonight through Wednesday night. A slightly larger, shorter period north northwest swell will fill in Thursday and peak Thursday night into early Friday. This should push surf heights back up to near double head high on Friday. This swell will begin its decline through the weekend. A larger northwest swell may arrive Saturday night and peak Sunday. If this swell comes in as forecast, this will definitely increase north and west facing shoreline surf to High Surf Advisory levels, possibly flirting with low end High Surf Warning criteria Sunday, Halloween Day. A slightly larger south swell filling in on Wednesday will bump south facing surf up by a couple of feet. Light to gentle mid to late week trades will have eastern shore wind wave chop diminishing in the coming days. East facing shorelines with any northerly exposure will experience higher surf from this week’s series of higher north swell wrap.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov