Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 84. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 83. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph becoming up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 68. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 64 at the summit. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 61 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph becoming up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 58 to 69. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trade winds are expected through Thursday. A few brief trade showers are possible mainly along windward facing sections of the state, especially from late this evening through early Thursday morning. Light and variable winds are expected from Friday through early next week, which will allow local afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to develop. This may result in clouds and a chance of showers over leeward and interior sections of the islands each afternoon, followed by clearing skies at night.

Discussion

A 1027 mb surface high pressure system is located far east- northeast of Hawaii near 33N 130W. The western end of a surface ridge extends west-southwest from this feature through a point about 400 miles north of Honolulu. The pressure gradient south of this ridge is maintaining light to moderate trade winds across most of the Hawaiian Island chain early this morning. Elsewhere, the leading edge of a band of broken to overcast low clouds with embedded showers associated with a cold front is slightly less than 500 miles northwest of Lihue. This leading edge has been moving toward the southeast at about 20 mph during the past few hours. Closer to home, loops of infrared satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data show scattered to locally broken low clouds and isolated light showers being transported into the windward sides of some of the islands.
The forecast guidance shows the western end of the surface ridge north of the islands will continue to gradually erode as the cold front pushes rapidly southeast. The models indicate the front will eventually stall and weaken about 200 miles north of Kauai by early Thursday morning. Surface high pressure bridging across this feature will likely maintain the light to moderate trade wind flow through Thursday. Note that some sheltered leeward locations of the islands may see local afternoon sea breezes develop later today and Thursday. Local nighttime land breezes will also set up over portions of the islands this evening, and again after sunset Thursday.
The forecast models appear to show the trades may transport additional low clouds and scattered showers down near windward Kauai from this evening through early Thursday morning. A few of these light showers may even reach windward Oahu. Otherwise, it will likely be rather dry over most areas through Thursday, with mainly brief trade showers possible over some windward sections. There will also likely be clouds and a chance of a brief shower or two over some leeward areas where the sea breezes develop each afternoon.
The stalled front will eventually dissipate north of the area by late Thursday, and by Friday a surface ridge is expected to move down into the vicinity of the islands. This will disrupt the trade winds, and produce light and variable background flow into early next week. As a result, expect a weather pattern with alternating local afternoon sea breeze and nighttime land breeze circulations over each of the individual islands for several days. It will also be somewhat dry. but clouds and a few showers may develop over leeward and interior sections of the islands each afternoon. The downslope winds at night will likely result in clearing skies over most of the state.

Aviation

As high pressure weakens across the islands, trade winds have been easing into the light to moderate range. VFR will prevail over most areas most of the time, with only brief MVFR in lower clouds and showers possible in windward and mauka sections statewide through the day.
No AIRMETs are in effect, and none are anticipated through the afternoon hours.

Marine

Surface high pressure remains far northeast of the state, its associated ridge axis extending back to the southwest in the vicinity of the far north Hawaiian offshore waters this morning. This ridging, along with a series of cold fronts approaching the region from the northwest, will support a weak pressure gradient and lighter winds across the islands. These fronts will weaken and become more diffuse as they pass through the northern offshore waters, possibly backing winds more north and west this weekend. Trades will generally remain gentle to moderate through Thursday night before weakening even further to just light and variable breezes Friday into the weekend.
The recent moderate size, medium period north swell will be slowly declining through the day. Today’s north surf heights will only subtly lower as an overlapping small, but slightly longer period, northwest swell fills in through tonight. A slightly larger, shorter period north northwest swell will arrive Thursday, peak Thursday night into early Friday then fall over the weekend. A large northwest swell is timed to reach the island chain Saturday night and peak Sunday. This swell will increase early week surf heights to above High Surf Advisory thresholds, possibly as high as low-end High Surf Warning levels. Looking further out to next week, a potentially even larger swell is possible Monday night into Tuesday. A few slightly larger, medium period south swells will begin arriving today. These swells will bump south shore surf up by another foot or two through the remainder of the week. Surf along east facing shores, with the exception of more northern exposures experiencing a higher north swell wrap, will continue to fall through late week in response to a weaker trade wind regime.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov