Photo Credit: Pamela Goguen Lynch

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated light showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated light showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated light showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered light showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 66 to 72. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered light showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 74 to 83. North winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue through tonight, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Trade winds will trend down Tuesday through midweek, potentially enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established. Rainfall accumulations should remain limited with the dry and stable conditions persisting through the first half of the week. Increasing moisture along with a return of moderate trades will be possible Wednesday night through Friday, which could lead to better windward shower coverage for parts of the state.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement through the start of the week and depicts the moderate to breezy easterly trades holding through tonight before trending down Tuesday through midweek as a weakness forms in the ridge to the north due to a passing front. Light showers will favor windward and mauka locations into Tuesday (mostly overnight and early mornings), with a transition to leeward areas through the afternoon periods Tuesday through midweek where localized sea breezes form. Rainfall accumulations, however, will be minimal due to the lack of available moisture in the area (PWs hovering below 1.25″).
A modest increase in moisture moving into the area from east to west combined with lowering upper heights as a weak upper low drifts southwestward near the eastern end of the state can’t be ruled out late Wednesday through Friday. The GFS solution is the wettest and depicts a decent sized area of PWs ranging from 1.5″ to 2″ moving over the Big Island and Maui County. If this materializes, windward shower coverage will trend up with moderate trades returning. The ECMWF solution, however, remains on the drier side, which lowers the forecast confidence through this extended period.

Aviation

Surface high about 950 nm NNE PHNL will move NE about 25 kt today. Trades will remain locally breezy today, and trend slightly lighter tonight. Predominantly VFR, but a small band of -SHRA embedded in the trades will bring some brief MVFR to a few windward spots this morning. Expecting the -SHRA to weaken and move on by midday.
SIGMET Victor remains in effect for moderate to occasionally severe turbulence between FL280 and FL400. There are mixed signals in the turbulence guidance about how fast this area weakens today, with the GFS keeping it around longer than the ECMWF. Will err on the side of caution and maintain the SIGMET for now.

Marine

A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the islands producing moderate to locally strong trade winds across the region. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typical windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island. Trade wind speeds for the Tuesday through Wednesday period show a slight weakening trend. Trade winds remain just below SCA levels from Thursday through Friday.
A northwest swell arriving late today will produce a slight bump for surf along north and west facing shores through Tuesday. A larger northwest swell will arrive on Wednesday, likely bringing advisory level surf along exposed north and west facing shores by Thanksgiving Day. This northwest swell energy will show decreasing trends from Friday to Saturday. Surf heights along east facing shores will remain small with nearly flat conditions along south facing shores of all islands.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov