Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 88. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 88. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs 61 to 73. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 43 to 54. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 57 to 69. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy easterly trade winds will continue through the weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. A band of moisture and strong northeast winds associated with a cold front moving into the area could lead to a wet and windy pattern for the first half of next week.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts a stable trade wind pattern continuing through the weekend as strong high pressure builds north of the state. Increasing moisture moving in (evident on the overnight Hilo sounding) from the east will support brief windward and mauka showers with light accumulations through the morning hours today. Expect this trend to continue into the weekend as pockets of moisture move through periodically. Trades will become locally windy as the pressure gradient tightens, which will near the advisory level for the windier locations in Maui County and the Big Island over the weekend.
The strong trades will continue early next week as a cold front approaches and moves into the area. Strong winds combined with increasing moisture accompanying the front will translate to more of a wet pattern unfolding Monday night through midweek. These winds will likely carry some showers into leeward areas, especially overnight through the morning periods.

Aviation

High pressure to the far north-northeast will maintain a low- level, locally breezy easterly flow across the islands into the weekend. Some thin high clouds are still passing over the islands from the west. Otherwise a stable atmosphere will remain in place through tonight, with limited showers focused over the windward slopes. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with some pockets of MVFR in some of the clouds and showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in place for low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain on all islands and will likely remain posted for the next several days. Not anticipating the need for any other AIRMETS this morning.

Marine

The relatively tight pressure gradient south of a surface high pressure system centered almost 725 nm north-northeast of Honolulu will maintain gusty trade winds and elevated, rough seas through this afternoon. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all Hawaiian waters today. The surface high will weaken slightly as a front pushes down from the north-northwest tonight, so the SCA will be scaled back to include the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island starting this evening, and continuing through Saturday. The SCA for these waters will likely be extended through the remainder of the weekend due to a new surface high pressure system pushing down from the northwest to a position far north of the islands from late Saturday through Sunday. This surface high will eventually push a front down from the north toward the islands early next week. It is likely that SCA conditions will develop over additional waters due to strengthening trade winds and building seas as this front moves down into the vicinity of the islands late Monday or Tuesday.
The current small north-northwest swell is expected to maintain small surf along exposed north and west facing shores into this weekend. The forecast guidance continues to indicate that a new long-period north swell will likely begin to spread down over the area starting late Sunday night or early Monday morning. This swell will gradually build, and may cause surf to eventually reach the High Surf Advisory threshold along most north facing shores around the time it is forecast to peak on Tuesday. The locally strong trade winds in the vicinity of, as well as upstream of the islands will produce slightly elevated, rough surf along east facing shores through early next week. Small background surf along south facing shores is expected to continue to gradually lower into this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov