Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Cloudy with showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs 74 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows 63 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

New Years Day: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Cloudy with showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs around 80. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 64. Southwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.

New Years Day: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

North Shore

Today: Cloudy. Occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

New Years Day: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to 58 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Cloudy with showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs 76 to 81. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 64. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.

New Years Day: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs around 49 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 38 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 80 percent.

New Years Day: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 50 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

East Maui

Today: Cloudy. Occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

New Years Day: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to 58 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Cloudy. Periods of rain and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rain may be heavy at times in the morning. Highs 70 to 77. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 61. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

New Years Day: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Cloudy. Periods of rain and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rain may be heavy at times in the morning. Highs 70 to 80. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows 55 to 67. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

New Years Day: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Southerly winds will carry showers from south to north over the area today, especially over the western end of the state. Slight chance of thunderstorms through tomorrow morning. Very light winds will allow sea breezes to develop on Monday and possibly Tuesday which will favor interior clouds and showers in the afternoon. Light trades may return by midweek.

Discussion

No changes to the forecast this morning. Rain over the windward side of Oahu subsided shortly before midnight, but passing showers remain across the islands. While some of the rain to the southwest of the islands earlier in the night has diminished, confidence remains high for stratiform rain to move over portions of the state today. The rain is the result of a low pressure system west of Kauai that continues to move northward. The associated surface trough extends towards the islands. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for the Big Island Summits until noon.
As mentioned last evening, some of the high resolution models did show a downward trend this morning, and that may be what we are seeing on radar in the pre-dawn hours. If that is indeed the case, that then raises the confidence in another round of showery weather to move in tonight just in time for New Year's Eve celebrations due to an upper level trough axis moving overhead.
Heading into Saturday, we see gradual improvement with showers diminishing as the surface low lifts north away from the islands. However with the low to the north-northeast of the region, we can expect the south to southeast winds to continue through the remainder of the weekend. Heading into the new work week, winds are expected to weaken enough to allow for afternoon sea breezes which will allow for clouds and showers to form over the interior of the islands, and overnight land breezes to help clear the islands out. Light trades will make a return attempt during mid- week as low pressure becomes established over the north Pacific.

Aviation

Winds will shift southeasterly, then south southeasterly by this afternoon as a trough moves northward over the islands. This feature will act to bring abundant deep level moisture and lift to the region. Periods of rain, heavy at times, will generate MVFR ceilings and visibility for local airports. Brief periods of IFR conditions may develop in association with the more intense banding of rain.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms for all islands through the period.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect above 2000 feet for all islands for tempo mountain obscuration due to clouds and showers.
AIRMET ZULU remains in effect from Kauai to the Big Island in layer 12000 ft to 22000 ft for tempo light icing.

Marine

An area of broad high high pressure remains anchored far north- northeast of the state. The surface low is 280 nm W of Kauai this early Friday morning, moving north- northwest at 20 kt. There is also a surface trough extending eastward from the low to across the island's leeward waters. The north side of the trough is where the moderate to strong E to SE winds are, and the lighter S to SE winds to the south of the trough. The trough will be heading north today, but stalling across the northeastern-most portion of the the offshore waters on Saturday. It won't be until Sunday night when it finally nudge north of the offshore waters.
It appear the east to southeast winds have abated across our near-shore waters. The near-shore CDIP buoys across our windward waters are reporting seas under 10 feet as well. Thus the Small Craft Advisory has been lowered.
The threat of gale force winds to the north of the trough has lessen, but the wind will be strong to near gale- force through tonight. There is a chance for a thunderstorm today and tonight across our near and offshore waters.
With the weaker wind flow, the surf along east facing shores will be at moderate heights today, followed by a gradual lowering through Saturday as we lose the trades.
A northwest swell of about 5 feet 15 seconds is due in late Saturday, decline Sunday, then fade on Monday. Wave Watch III is indicating a large northwest swell arriving Wednesday afternoon, with surf likely at the high end of a High Surf Advisory. Surf along south facing shores will remain small into next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Winter Weather Advisory until noon HST today for Big Island Summits.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov