Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 67. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 61. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 59 to 64. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 54 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 38 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 63. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds becoming north up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 53 to 65. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds becoming north up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds will prevail through the work week, allowing for daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes in most areas, with a brief period of light trades expected Wednesday night and Thursday. Shower coverage and intensity will trend downward through mid week, with showers developing over interior and mauka areas during the day and near the southern shorelines of the islands at night. Much drier conditions are expected late in the week, with very little shower activity expected Thursday and Friday. A weakening front could bring a slight increase in rain chances as it moves into the islands over the weekend.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a cold front is located around 500 miles west-northwest of Kauai, while a 1028 mb high is centered around 1750 miles east-northeast of the Big Island. The resulting gradient is producing light southerly boundary layer winds, although land breezes dominate over the islands early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions across the state, with a few areas seeing a bit more cloud cover over the southern shores of Kauai and Oahu. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the coastal waters south and southwest of Kauai and Oahu, with a few showers grazing the southern shorelines. Elsewhere, rain free conditions prevail. Main short term concern continues to revolve around rain chances the next few days.
High pressure to the distant east-northeast and a cold front approaching from the northwest will keep winds light during the next couple days, with land and sea breezes common in most areas. A weak high will pass quickly by to the north of the islands Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing a return of light to locally moderate trade winds. The trades will ease Thursday night as a new cold front approaches from the northwest, with winds becoming light and variable on Friday. Light westerly winds are forecast to develop Friday night in advance of the front, then shift around to the north and northeast at light to moderate levels on Saturday. The winds will quickly become light and variable Saturday night, then appear to shift around to the southwest at light to moderate levels Sunday into early next week in advance of yet another cold front.
As for the remaining weather details, scattered showers will likely continue to move onshore in the southerly flow this morning, with the showers spreading to interior areas during the afternoon with the assistance of sea breezes. We should see a few showers move onshore in the southerly flow again tonight, followed by a more stable and lighter wind regime reducing shower coverage on Wednesday. The airmass will continue to dry out and stabilize Wednesday night. Fairly dry conditions are then expected Thursday through early next week, with perhaps a slight increase in shower coverage Saturday through Sunday as a front moves into the smaller islands, stalls out and dissipates.

Aviation

Lingering unstable moisture due to a weakening upper level disturbance over the region will keep brief periods of unsettled weather with brief MVFR conditions are possible through this morning. Weather conditions will trend towards the drier side through the day in a light and variable wind pattern.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

Light to gentle south to southeast breezes will slowly veer more westerly today as a cold front to the west lifts northeast and passes north of the state through mid week. A high passing by to the north of the area Wednesday will cause winds to swing around to the north northeast going into Thursday. An upper ridge east of the region will support a more stable air mass and this will translate to a drier mid to late week weather pattern. A cold front may reach the far northern offshore waters this weekend with the eastern passage of a North Pacific gale low. While winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through the week, the entrance of a series of large northwest swells will produce combined seas greater than the 10 foot SCA threshold within more windward waters Wednesday through Thursday and then again over the weekend.
A moderate-building-to-large size, long to medium period northwest swell will build in late tonight through Thursday. During this time period, a strong, slow-moving Bering Sea low will send a moderate, long to medium period north swell into the local waters. This northwest and north swell combination will produce high surf that will likely prompt High Surf Advisories along Kauai and Oahu's north and west facing shores Wednesday. A long fetch will develop far northwest of the islands later this week and this will push in a third, even larger size northwest swell this weekend. This swell has a decent probability of generating XL, warning level surf along north and west facing shores this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov