Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 71. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 40 percent chance of showers. Highs 75 to 82. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 83. Light winds.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 63 to 71. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 67 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then a 30 percent chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 81. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then a 20 percent chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 82. Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 67 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then a 30 percent chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 61. Light winds.

Monday: Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs 71 to 78. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 65 to 83. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 54 to 71. Light winds.

Monday: Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs 65 to 83. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds and mostly dry weather will continue into Monday across the islands. A weak front is expected to move down the island chain Monday night and Tuesday, boosting winds and shower activity. Behind the front, expect another burst of cooler air. Light and variable winds will lead to land and sea breezes during the second half of the week.

Discussion

No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Most changes have been tweaks for days 5 thru 7 to trend the forecast towards a blend of the models.
The overnight period started with clouds clearing over many areas with the light winds giving way to land breezes. However lingering clouds from the dissipated front were off to the northeast of Oahu. Around midnight, these clouds filled in over Oahu, but showers remained sparse over the island. Radar shows some showers off the eastern coast of Oahu, but the land breeze has largely kept these showers over the water.
A ridge is moving over the islands from the north this morning, and will bring light winds and mostly dry weather to the islands today. Winds will be light enough for land and sea breezes to form, but with the atmosphere so dry, afternoon shower activity is expected to be light. As mentioned above, the moisture from yesterday's front continues to linger over and near Oahu, so expect more showers there as compared to the other smaller islands. An area of moisture located southeast of the Big Island is expected to move to the northwest aiding in shower development this afternoon. Dewpoints are in the low 60s, and even dropping into the upper 50s in some locales, and are expected to linger there through the remainder of the weekend.
The next front looks to approach the state Monday, and move slowly across Kauai and Oahu, before falling apart the Big Island Tuesday. This front looks to have a bit more moisture associated with it, so expect slightly higher rainfall totals with it, particularly over the north slopes of Kauai. Ahead of the front southwest winds will increase to moderate levels on Monday. Both the ECMWF and GFS suggest some pre-frontal convergence over the central islands Monday which would increase shower activity there ahead of the front. Behind the front, drier dewpoints, in the mid to upper 50s, are expected to spread across the northern end of the state which will leading to a cool feel. The GFS model has been trending dewpoints cooler with each run during this time period, so have adjusted the dewpoint grids accordingly.
Behind the front, another ridge is expected to move back over the state bring another period of light and variable winds. Expect more land and sea breezes during the second half of the week. A persistent, zonal west Pacific jet stream could send a disturbance aloft over the state which could trigger an increase in spotty showers on Wednesday or Thursday. Otherwise, little significant rainfall is expected.
The GFS and ECMWF are showing another front stalling just north of the state next Saturday, favoring continued light winds.

Aviation

Surface ridging near the state will keep winds light and variable today. Early morning satellite imagery shows that land breezes have predominately kept cloud cover to a minimum across the islands overnight, with only a few isolated showers located mainly in the adjacent waters of Kauai and Oahu. Sea breezes are expected to develop again this afternoon and increase interior clouds, but any showers that develop should remain light and isolated across the smaller islands. In addition, an area of moisture that is currently southeast of the state will move northwestward into the Big Island, increasing clouds and showers along its east and south facing shores later this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect and none are expected throughout the day today.

Marine

Several strong low pressure systems with storm to hurricane force winds will produce three large northwest swells, from the 300-320 direction, over the next seven day time period. Expect an extended period of surf heights above High Surf Advisory (HSA) thresholds affecting exposed north and west facing shores of all Hawaiian Islands through Friday. The peak energy associated with each of these northwest swells will be strong enough produce periods of surf heights above High Surf Warning (HSW) levels.
The first in this series of northwest swells will peak this morning, then slowly lower later this afternoon through Monday. The HSW was extended in time through Monday morning for exposed north and west facing shores.
A second and slightly larger northwest swell will arrive late Monday, peaking late Monday night into early Tuesday, and then slowly lowering from late Tuesday through Wednesday. A third and equally large northwest swell will fill in by Wednesday night, peaking on Thursday, and then slowly lowering from Thursday night to Friday. Both of these northwest swells are forecast to produce two additional periods of warning level surf for all exposed north and west facing shores.
Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels throughout the forecast period. However, seas will reach or exceed SCA levels across exposed waters as the above mentioned northwest swells move across the area. The current SCA coverage decreased this morning for some leeward waters due to lower seas. However, the SCA remains in effect for all northern Hawaiian waters, most channels, and Leeward Kauai Waters.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, for north facing shores of Maui, and for west facing shores of the Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Channel, Oahu Leeward Waters, Alenuihaha Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov