Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 67. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 61. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Friday: Partly sunny. Highs around 83. East winds up to 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 64. East winds around 10 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 84. East winds up to 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 52 to 64. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Friday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds featuring overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes will hold in place over the western islands through early next week, with light to locally moderate trade winds prevailing over the eastern end of the state. Rather dry conditions will prevail during this time, with a few showers developing over the island interiors each afternoon, and mainly dry conditions prevailing aside from a few windward showers each night. A weakening front could bring an increase in showers Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered around 1800 miles northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge extending southwestward to a location around 75 miles north of Kauai. The resulting gradient is weak enough for land breezes over the western islands, while light to moderate trade winds continue to hold on over the eastern end of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas, with a bit more cloud cover over windward Maui and Big Island. Radar imagery shows a few showers over windward slopes and coasts of Maui and the Big Island, with rain free conditions elsewhere. Main short term concern revolves around rain chances during the next few days.
The ridge of high pressure will remain nearly stationary near or just north of the western islands through early next week, resulting in an extended period of light and variable winds featuring daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes over Kauai and Oahu. Over Maui County and the Big Island, light to locally moderate trade winds will hold in place, with localized land and sea breezes in the more sheltered areas. A cold front approaching from the northwest could potentially shift winds around to the south and southwest around the middle of next week.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly dry conditions will then prevail through early next week. A few showers are expected to develop over the island interiors each afternoon, while nights and mornings will be mostly dry aside from a few mainly windward focused showers. A weakening front approaching from the northwest could bring an increase in showers Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Aviation

Winds will be light to moderate across the area as a surface ridge remains nearby. Nighttime land breezes and daytime sea breezes will develop over the next several days. Showers will mainly occur in the afternoon and evening hours over mauka and interior sections. However, VFR will predominate most of the time over most areas.
An AIRMET is in effect for moderate turbulence from FL220 to FL350 as an upper air trough moves from west to east across the region.

Marine

A weak surface ridge will likely meander just north of Kauai through this weekend. The close proximity of this feature will generate light to locally moderate east to southeast winds around the Big Island and Maui. Expect light and variable winds, with some periods of predominate weak southeasterly winds, around Oahu and Kauai. A front approaching from the northwest is expected to push the ridge down over the islands on Monday, which will keep the winds relatively weak early next week.
A large, reinforcing northwest swell arrived at the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys northwest of Kauai late last evening. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands through early Friday morning. The swell may be a foot or so above the model guidance, which means that it may be approaching the High Surf Warning (HSW) criteria along some north and west facing shores of the smaller islands later today. We will monitor observations in case a HSW is required for Kauai County, and possibly Oahu. Elsewhere, the HSA also remains in effect for west facing shores of the Big Island through this afternoon. The latest guidance continues to show the surf may drop below the HSA threshold along west facing shores of the Big Island by this evening. We will monitor observations later today to determine if the HSA needs to be extended for the leeward Big Island into tonight.
We expect the HSA will also be needed for elevated surf along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands on Friday. Yet another large northwest swell with HSA criteria surf is expected for most north and west facing shores from Saturday into Sunday.
Although the winds in the vicinity of the islands will likely be relatively weak for an extended period of time, the seas will remain elevated over waters exposed to the large northwest swells. Currently, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the waters adjacent to Kauai and Niihau. Seas may subside below the SCA threshold of 10 feet by this evening. Expect additional periods of seas approaching the SCA criteria due to the large reinforcing northwest swell this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kona, Kohala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov